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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 25th, 2019–Jan 26th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast Inland.

Warm air and sunny skies will influence the snowpack on Saturday. The amount of warming is uncertain; expect the most warming on south aspects and for the snowpack to possibly moisten on other aspects too. This may make the snow very touchy.

Confidence

Moderate - Freezing levels are uncertain

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear skies, freezing level rising to 2700 m.SATURDAY: Clear skies, light northwest winds, alpine temperature between 2 C and 6 C, freezing level 3000 m with inversion conditions.SUNDAY: Clear skies, moderate northwest winds, alpine temperature near -1 C, freezing level dropping from 2000 m to 1000 m over the day.MONDAY: Clear skies, light north winds, alpine temperature -7 C, freezing level below valley bottom.

Avalanche Summary

The surface hoar buried 30 to 60 cm has been reactive to skier traffic in the past few days. Check out recent avalanche reports in the MIN, here and here.Looking towards the weekend, the likelihood of triggering the layers discussed in the Snowpack Summary may increase. Also expect loose wet avalanches if the air temperatures reach as warm as the weather forecast predicts.

Snowpack Summary

Warm air temperatures are entering the region and may moisten the snow surface at all elevations and on all aspects, but most pronounced on south aspects. Beneath this, around 30 to 60 cm of snow sits on a sun crust on southerly aspects, a temperature crust below around 1700 m on all aspects, and feathery surface hoar in areas sheltered by the wind at all elevation bands. The surface hoar may be most pronounced on west, north, and east aspects below 2100 m. This layer may be touchy to human traffic this weekend.Below this, the snowpack is generally well-settled. In certain parts of the region, you may still find a weak layer of surface hoar buried about 60 to 120 cm in sheltered areas around treeline. There haven’t been any recent avalanches on this layer but the likelihood of triggering it may increase this weekend with warm air temperatures.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.