Confidence
Fair - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain
Weather Forecast
Saturday: Expect an unsettled day, with mostly cloudy skies and intermittent flurries. Accumulations of 5cm are possible with upslope areas receiving brief, intense snowfalls yielding deeper localized deposits. Alpine temperatures should remain cool at around -7 with light to moderate westerly winds.Sunday: We should see a mix of sun and cloud, with a chance of isolated flurries. Alpine temperatures climb slightly to around -5 with light easterly winds.Monday: Expect a continued clearing trend with scattered clouds, alpine temperatures reaching -4 and light easterly winds.
Avalanche Summary
The recent storm snow has been reactive to rider triggering and explosive testing up to size 2.0. These avalanches are failing predominantly in wind loaded features on north through northeast aspects..
Snowpack Summary
Up to 10cm of storm snow has fallen recently. This overlies up to 50cm of previous storm snow from last Wednesday. At low elevations rain continues to saturate the snowpack. The previous storm was accompanied by moderate to strong south/southwest winds which left variable snow distribution in exposed terrain with dense wind slabs forming in lee and cross-loaded features. Up to 85cm below the surface you will likely find a melt-freeze crust from previous sunny weather. At the same interface, you may find spotty surface hoar on high north facing terrain. Large natural activity and remote triggers from earlier in the week suggest the surface hoar may continue to be reactive, especially with the weight of the new snow.Cornices are very large and could pop off with continued mild temperatures.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.