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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 27th, 2014–Jan 28th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

Freezing levels are dropping and some new snow is on the way. Deep persistent slab problems may still exist in isolated areas. Please see blog post for more information.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Overnight and Tuesday: The inversion is forecast to slowly break down tonight allowing some Pacific moisture to move into the region starting at higher elevations and then filling in to lower elevations. Expect very light precipitation falling as snow in the alpine overnight. A mix of snow and rain during the day Tuesday as the cloud moves to the East and freezing levels drop down to about 1000 metres. Winds are expected to be moderate from the Southwest.Wednesday: Moderate precipitation 5-15 cm above about 800 metres elevation. Continued moderate Southwest winds.Thursday: Light precipitation 3-5 cm as the weak system exits the region. Light to moderate West-Northwest winds.

Avalanche Summary

Some loose wet avalanche activity continues due to warm alpine temperatures and solar radiation. Forecast cooler temperatures and cloud should end this problem.

Snowpack Summary

Forecast cloud and cooler temperatures should allow for good crust development at all elevations. New snow may not bond to the old surface where surface hoar has grown at and below treeline. In the alpine the new snow may not bond to the crust depending on the timing of the cooling. There continues to be a concern for deeply buried layers of weak facetted crystals, this is mostly a concern on slopes with a shallow and variable snowpack in the Duffey Lake and Chilcotin areas.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.