The melt freeze crust is lowering the avalanche danger during the morning and early afternoon. Once thawed the danger will increase both rapidly and dramatically. Avoid being on or below steep sun exposed slopes by mid afternoon. Monitor the crust.
Weather Forecast
The cold Northerly air mass which has blanketed the area during the past week will be pushed out by a warmer moister Westerly flow over the next 24hrs. Winds at ridge tops will increase into the strong range. Cloudy skies will releasing precipitation in the form of light rain at lower elevations and snow flurries near treeline and the alpine.
Snowpack Summary
A spring temperature crust up to 15cm thick can be found near the top of the snowpack. This crust has been found as high as 2600m in the Icefields area. In places it is buried under several inches of new snow. Wind slabs can be found at upper elevations on most aspects due to varied wind direction patterns. Cornices are large and ready to drop.
Avalanche Summary
The avalanche danger will increase during the day particularly at lower elevations if it rains. Strong Westerly ridge top winds will add to the thin wind slabs on easterly facing slopes as well as building cornices. Pay close attention if the sun comes out as this will dramatically and rapidly increase the avalanche danger on solar facing slopes.
Confidence
Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Thursday
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.