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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 12th, 2014–Mar 13th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Cariboos.

The current snowpack presents a serious challenge. Check out our latest blog for a look into the recent avalanche cycle and our best guess into what the future holds.

Confidence

Poor - Freezing levels are uncertain

Weather Forecast

Synopsis: A ridge of high pressure dominates the pattern for most of Thursday giving way to a pacific front Friday. Freezing levels are forecast to remain at spring like heights for the period (1300m - 2000m). Look for clearing skies Saturday. There is very little consistency from one model to the next at this time, thus my confidence in this forecast is quite poor.Thursday: Freezing Level: 1300m - 1600m; Precip: nil; Wind: Light, S | Mod W at ridgetop.Friday: Freezing Level: 800m - 1500m; Precip: 4/5mm - 4/8cm; Wind: Strong, SW | Extreme SW at ridgetop.Saturday: Freezing Level: 800m - 1700m; Precip: 1/4mm - Trace/5cm; Wind; Strong, SW | Extreme SW at ridgetop.

Avalanche Summary

No avalanche activity was reported on Tuesday.On Monday evidence of a natural avalanche cycle to size 3.5 was observed. The activity likely occurred on Sunday with many of the avalanches releasing on the February 10th interface. Large cornice fall was also reported in the region. A report also came in about a close call on Sunday. A ski touring party had 1 partial burial and a full burial by what sounds like a size 3.5 avalanche in the Ozalenka Valley south of McBride. The slab thickness was about 100cm and the avalanche covered about 8 hectares. Everybody walked/skied away from the incident.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 80cm of snow fell over the past week. This storm slab overlies small surface hoar crystals in sheltered areas and a sun crust on previously sun-exposed slopes. The storm snow may be strengthening somewhat, although it may continue to be reactive in wind exposed terrain or where it overlies the buried crust. Low elevation terrain and sun-exposed slopes are likely seeing a daily melt-freeze cycle. Cornice development has also been significant.There is ongoing concern for a mix of weak surfaces which were buried on February 10th. This persistent interface lies about a metre below the surface, and includes weak surface hoar, well developed facets and a mix of hard surfaces which remain widespread at all aspects and elevations. Potential triggers at this point include a surface slab in motion, a large cornice fall, or intense solar warming.For the most part, the mid and lower snowpack are strong and well consolidated. Weak basal facets exist in some areas, but triggering is unlikely.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.