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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 12th, 2011–Dec 13th, 2011

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos.

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Tuesday: Isolated flurries, with clouds lifting late in the day. Winds will be westerly up to 40km/h and temperatures should reach -8. Wednesday & Thursday: A weak ridge rebuilds over the region giving mostly clear conditions with light westerly winds and temperatures reaching -5 in the afternoons.

Avalanche Summary

Some sluffing of the new snow (up to size 1.0) has been reported, predominantly at treeline and below.

Snowpack Summary

10-20cm of new snow has fallen in the past couple of days. This overlies surface hoar (as large as 10mm in protected areas), surface facets, the odd old windslab and sun crusts (on steep south through west aspects). The new snow has fallen with limited winds effect. All of these newly buried surfaces are good sliding interfaces; all that's lacking is a large enough load. As more snow arrives and/or the wind picks up (as per the forecast) the avalanche danger will increase. Due to the slow, incremental increase in load (dribs and drabs of new snow and sporadic winds), this increase in danger is difficult to pinpoint and could be very site specific.In some locations there is a rain crust buried between 20-35cm. This crust extends as high as 2200m. Some faceting has been observed around the crust; definitely worth remembering this one.The early November surface hoar remains a layer of concern. Buried 100-150cm it is unlikely to trigger, but consequences of triggering would be a large (up to size 3.0) destructive avalanche.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.