Avalanche forecast

Jasper

Mar 14 – 15, 2015Parks Canada
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Archived · expired 12 years ago

Avalanche danger

Sun
Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Solar radiation is quite strong whenever there is a break in the clouds. Evaluate sunny slopes carefully after midday.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    1–2
    Strong winds at treeline at above have created a new series of windslabs in lee features. Despite warm temperatures, these new windslabs will likely need a few days to bond to older snow surfaces.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–3
    Warm temperatures and strong solar effect will continue to produce avalanches on steep solar facing terrain.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    2–4
    While not reactive recently, the deep persistent weakness could still be triggered by a smaller avalanche or cornice failure.

Weather Forecast

Warm overnight temperatures and high freezing levels are forecast for the next 2 days. Before noon on Saturday, heavy snowfall will begin in the Icefields area with accumulations up to 25cm. This new precipitation will arrive with strong, gusty winds, and cooler temperatures. Warming and clearing should follow the storm on Sunday.

Snowpack Summary

The primary concerns for the snowpack are: 1. Isothermal conditions, especially on solar aspects, 2. Deep persistent weaknesses at the base of the snowpack, and 3. Windslabs in lee Alpine and treeline features. The well settled upper snowpack layers, especially at higher elevations, are bridging lower weaknesses for now.

Avalanche Summary

New avalanche activity is small & restricted to steep solar slopes usually near rocky terrain. Additional inputs of energy from rain, strong solar radiation, & poor refreezing temperatures overnight will exacerbate this problem. Windslabs could be triggered by skiers, and these smaller avalanches could trigger the basal weakness.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Saturday

Regions covered