Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Regions
South Coast.
Conservative terrain selection is recommended in the North Shore Mountains where there is a lingering possibility of triggering large persistent slab avalanches.
Confidence
High -
Weather Forecast
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear, light northeast wind, alpine temperatures drop to -5 C.SUNDAY: Sunny, light west wind, treeline temperatures near -2 C, freezing level 900 m.MONDAY: Snow starting in the afternoon with 10 cm by the evening, 20-40 km/h west wind, treeline temperatures near -2 C, freezing level 600 m.TUESDAY: Snow continues in the morning and eases off in the afternoon, total accumulation of 20-30 cm over the course of the storm, 20-50 km/h northwest wind, treeline temperatures near -2 C, freezing level 900 m.
Avalanche Summary
On Friday, small loose dry avalanches were triggered by skiers within the recent storm snow (see an example in this MIN report here). Since then the storm snow has likely settled and bonded to the underlying snow.
Snowpack Summary
Mild temperatures have settled 10 to 30 cm of snow that fell a few days ago. This snow overlies a variety of layers, including wind-affected snow at higher elevations, soft and faceted snow in shaded and sheltered areas, and a melt-freeze crust on steep southerly slopes.A layer of weak and sugary faceted grains sits on a melt-freeze crust about 50 to 120 cm deep. The layer is likely most prominent in the North Shore Mountains and on north aspects. This layer continues to be reactive in snowpack tests. The problem is not typical for the region and we expect this persistent weak layer to continue to linger.The lower snowpack is generally strong.
Problems
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.