Avalanche forecast

Olympics

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
No rating
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Highlights

You can trigger fresh slabs where winds redistribute snow onto shaded upper-elevation lee slopes. Steer around such drifts on steep or unsupported terrain and in cross-loaded gullies. Note that this problem may be more isolated in the Hurricane Ridge area.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–1.5

    We suspect that there's dry snow available for transport on colder upper-elevation slopes. We think W winds will be just strong enough to transport that snow to form shallow slabs.  A trace to half an inch of fresh snowfall will add to the transport. More significant amounts of snow will be available for transport in the southern Olympics, where 6-12" of snow may have fallen on 2/21. If you're in these areas, expect small slabs large enough to take you for a significant ride in specific terrain. This includes steep and poorly supported slopes exhibiting signs of wind loading. These include, actively blowing snow, slopes beneath fresh, sharp cornices, and gullies accumulating snow as the west winds brush the north sides of ridgelines. It's worth noting that there could be older stubborn slabs lurking in the D1.5 range. Therefore, it's worth constantly evaluating the depth of snow above the widespread 2/21 crust and re-evaluating if you find that depth increasing or firm, punchy layering. We've found small, weaker facets at the 2/11 interface and we're not sure how much they will be stressed in areas with a thicker pre-existing slab.

    In the Hurricane Ridge area, these hazards will be more isolated, smaller, and confined to extreme terrain features where the risk of traumatic injury increases from even a very small avalanche.

     

    Example: This small wind drift failed and cracked under my weight. 

    Photo: Dallas Glass

Avalanche Discussion

We're transitioning back to a cooler weather pattern, putting the focus back on cold snow avalanche concerns. 

Observers in the Maggies (2/23) and Victoria Overlook (2/22) areas of Hurricane Ridge found a generally strengthening upper snowpack. A layer of facets remains 8" below the snow surface, resting on the stout2/11 crust. Test results do produce failures, but are not concerning on this interface at middle elevations. Moist snowfall on 2/21 formed a crust up to middle elevations while direct sun exposure on 2/23 likely extended that surface crust to upper elevations on SW-S-SE aspects. A friable crust exists 1-2" below the surface. Temperatures rose to 39F at Hurricane Ridge on Friday, but most of the wet loose activity and rollerballs had already run their course in prior days.

We'll be watching to see whether incoming snowfall buries small (5 mm) surface hoar that stuck around on shaded aspects on 2/23. See photo gallery.

Temperatures have been fluctuating above and below freezing eat day at Hurricane Ridge elevation since 2/16. This has limited snow accumulation to around 5000 ft and above. At Hurricane Ridge, just over an inch of snow accumulated since 2/18, giving Hurricane Ridge a total snow depth of around 28-30". 

With a cold and wet pattern starting up on Sunday, we expect coverage to start increasing at lower elevations by next week. However, for this weekend, there's not enough snow for recreation in most areas below 4500 ft. Coverage remains particularly poor on the southern half of the compass, where patchy snow has mostly melted down to grassy surfaces. Gullies might hold barely rideable snow in places due to wind transport. Throughout the terrain, numerous obstacles, including running creeks and open holes, can make it much more dangerous. Take it slow and give yourself time to deal with these persistent hazards. You may find better coverage in the southern and eastern Olympics, which have been favored by February storms.

NWAC may issue a gray "No Rating" for an elevation band when there is not enough snow to present an avalanche hazard.

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