Avalanche forecast

Mt Hood

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

 A winter storm will bring dangerous avalanche conditions to the Mt Hood zone. Several feet of new snow and strong winds should help keep your terrain selection simple. Stick to lower-angled slopes out of the wind -with less exposure to bigger, avalanche-prone terrain overhead.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    New snow will stack up, likely creating instabilities within the storm snow. It will also create thick, reactive slabs in wind-loaded terrain. The heaviest precipitation rates will come during the early morning hours, so you may find the most reactive conditions during the first half of the day. 

    New snow will fall on various surfaces including crusts, scoured surfaces, dry snow on shaded aspects and moist snow at lower elevations. As you travel, constantly assess how the new snow bonds to these pre-existing surfaces. In isolated areas and neighboring zones, observers continue to find weak snow above a crust (EFC) 2-3 ft below the snow surface. If an avalanche broke on this layer, the resulting slide could be several feet deep and propagate across terrain features.

    Heavy new snow, strong winds, and potential weak layers should help keep your terrain selection simple on Monday. The new snow will need time to settle, so avoid all slopes greater than 35 degrees until the storm wraps up. 

    (1/8/2023)

    You could trigger similar storm slabs on Monday. 

Avalanche Discussion

Mt Hood is finally getting in the action, and the precipitation forecast is trending upwards. We expect over 1 inch of snow water equivalent, likely resulting in 1-2 ft of new snow by 6 pm on Monday. The storm will come on a sharp cooling trend, so new snow should stack up on a favorable structure. Beyond storm and wind slabs, you'll want to keep loose snow avalanches on your mind as well. Big cycles like this are times when dry loose avalanches catch people by surprise in steep, sheltered terrain. While less likely,  monitor moistening surfaces if the sun pokes out. Cold temperatures should help keep wet avalanches at bay, but we're getting to that time of year when the sun can pack a punch when it comes out. 

Before this storm, observers and avalanche professionals have been finding a widespread melt-freeze crust below 5000 ft due to recent warming. Middle elevations have the most variability, with dry snow lingering on shady slopes and thin crusts existing on slopes that receive significant sun. Upper elevations are a patchwork of old stubborn wind slabs, scoured surfaces, and fresher shallow drifts from the upper elevation loading event on Saturday.

Deeper layers of concern, such as the Early February crust, continue to produce inconsistent snowpack test results across the zone. We generally find this layer rounding and gaining strength in the places we've traveled. However, we're discovering it's also very spatially variable. In some areas, such as the northern aspects above 6000 ft, we continue to see weak snow producing propagation and untable test results. The big question now is how this potential weak layer will react to several feet of snow? We're unsure, but that's more reason to increase your margins as you travel in the coming days. 

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