Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Snowfall will start to pick up by mid-day Friday and ramp up overnight through Saturday.  An Avalanche Watch is in effect. Expect dangerous avalanche conditions to develop overnight Friday into Saturday as snow totals start to stack up.  

Today, you can trigger a persistent slab avalanche on faceted weak layers and depth hoar near the ground beneath slabs that formed from storms in January.  Near and Below treeline the snowpack is shallower and it's easier to trigger an avalanche on these weak layers.  Above treeline, thicker harder slabs may make it harder to trigger an avalanche unless you find a likely trigger point where the weak layer is closer to the surface like on the margins of the slab or near rock outcroppings.  As snow starts to stack up, storm slabs will become more reactive and grow in size.  A smaller avalanche on the surface has the potential to step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche.  

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    Cohesive slabs of snow from January storms rest on top of faceted weak layers and depth hoar deeper down in the snowpack. Obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud audible collapses most likely will not be present in travels until we see more loading and slab development with this storm. Take the time to either dig a pit or use a probe pole to identify if the slope you plan to play on has a poor snowpack structure of strong over weak. It's possible to trigger a persistent slab avalanche that could break well above you.   Any avalanche triggered could be large and take with it most of the season's snowpack.  

    Near and Below treeline, the snowpack is shallower and January slabs are not as thick or hard, making impacting and collapsing a weak layer a lot easier.  Above treeline, strong wind events earlier this season have capped these weak layers with thicker and harder slabs. It may take you finding a likely trigger point on the margins of the slab or near rock outcroppings 

    Weak layers deeper down in the snowpack continue to remain reactive and will face a significant test from this incoming storm. 

     

    (1/27/2024) Photo: Andy Bond

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Freshly forming, sensitive storm slabs will be building throughout the day.  New snow is going to be falling on a variety of surfaces, from near-surface facets, to slick firm crusts, and may not be bonding well to this old snow surface.  For today, near and above treeline will have the biggest concerns for shallow storm slab avalanches with moderate W/SW winds transporting snow into thicker more reactive slabs. Avoid slopes where you find more than 8 inches of new snow.  Pay attention to signs of instability like shooting cracks off your boards.   If you do trigger an avalanche on the surface there's a possibility that it can step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche.  

Avalanche Discussion

After the last four days of unseasonably warm temperatures, it's hard to believe that Punxsutawney Phil is waking up this morning and seeing his shadow bringing a return of winter.  The first in a series of storms and atmospheric river events impacts northern NM today through Saturday.  The National Weather Service has us under a Winter Storm Warning where 12 to 20 inches is forecasted. Snow started falling early this morning bringing just a couple of inches of snow. An additional 4 to 8 inches of snow is forecasted during the day, with the bulk of this coming later this afternoon and early evening. Avalanche conditions are going to be changing throughout the day and quickly ramping up tonight into Saturday as snow starts to accumulate. 

Faceted weak layers and depth hoar deeper down in the snowpack, will face a significant test with this incoming storm. As we saw with the last significant round of loading in the middle of January, these weak layers are going to struggle to handle much weight and become more reactive to what we've seen over the last week.  There is still a bit of uncertainty on the timing of this storm, but it's looking like heavy snowfall is forecasted to begin this afternoon through Saturday.  We've kept the avalanche danger at Moderate today, but be aware that if we see higher than forecasted snowfall amounts earlier in the day, avalanche conditions could ramp up quickly this afternoon.  We're expecting this to happen later tonight into tomorrow and anticipate having to issue an avalanche warning as very dangerous avalanche conditions develop.    

Another significant storm pushes into the area Wednesday bringing more snow.  Expect dangerous avalanche conditions to stick with us through the week.  It's time to take a step back and make conservative decisions in the mountains

 

 

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