Moab

The overall danger remains MODERATE. Although increasingly unlikely, human-triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer remain possible on steep slopes that face W-N-E-SE. The danger is most prominent on slopes that face NW-N-E. You are most likely to trigger an avalanche in thin snowpack areas. You can reduce your risk by avoiding steep, rocky areas and slopes with complex terrain features. A generally LOW danger exists on slopes facing S-SW.

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Road Conditions: The Geyser Pass Road is plowed but snowpacked and slick!

Grooming: LUNA will be up grooming today.

6:00 a.m. Snow and Weather Data

24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Season Total Snow 132" Depth at Gold Basin 48"

Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: SW 10-20 Temp 27° Percent of Normal: 98%

Weather

Winds from the SW have been on the increase overnight and are blowing in the 10-20 mph range along ridge tops. Look for sunny, warm, and breezy conditions today with high temps at 10,000' rising to near 40F. Winds will increase tonight and clouds will build as the first wave of moisture in a two-part storm system moves into the region. I'm still bullish about how this will play out for us. We're not likely to see any moisture from the first wave. Our best chance for snow will come from the second round Monday night into Tuesday, but the GFS model run this morning had scaled back from yesterday. I'm hopeful that we'll pick up at least 6" from this. The rest of the week looks sunny and dry.

General Conditions

Tim Mathews and Nate Ament reported some surprisingly good, sleeper conditions out there on Friday. It seems like a passing front on Thursday put down a nice layer of graupel that barely registered on the storm board. Look for sheltered, lower angle slopes to take advantage of these conditions. Brian Sparks sent in this observation from the Corkscrew Glades yesterday, where he continued to find faceted snow at the base of the snowpack. The likelihood of triggering a deep avalanche down to this weak layer has decreased significantly, but you can keep the odds in your favor by avoiding areas of steep, rocky, radical terrain, or slopes with complex terrain features. Thinner snowpack areas remain suspect where your weight can much more easily affect the weak layer. We are getting reports of people pushing into steep, consequential terrain without incident, but before you do this, pull out your shovel, or simply probe around. I'd personally like to see close to 200 cms of snow before I'd feel good about skiing something steep.

Quality low angle turns in a graupel layer on top of a few inches of dry snow. Tim Mathews photo.

Snowpack and Weather Data

Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')

Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')

SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')

Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')

NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.

Want some more insight into the La Sal Mountains as well as the communal impacts of a tragic avalanche? Check out the latest UAC podcast with forecaster Eric Trenbeath where he discusses the range, it's often treacherous snowpack, and how the devastating avalanche in February, 1992, affected the Moab community.

Our avalanche beacon checker sign and beacon training park are up and running. A huge thanks to Talking Mountain Yurts for sponsoring those this season!

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This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.