Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

New snow and wind are creating very dangerous avalanche conditions, especially above treeline, where you can easily trigger a storm slab avalanche below ridgelines and in cross-loaded terrain features. These avalanches can break widely across the slope and step down into deeper weak layers creating potentially very large avalanche that runs to the valley floor.  Continued loading is stressing weak layers deeper down in the snowpack that hasn't seen much of a break over the last week.  Conservative decision-making and cautious route-finding are essential today, avoid being on or connected to slopes over 30 degrees. 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–2

    New snow and moderate to strong W/SW winds are quickly transporting snow at upper elevations into thicker and stiffer slabs.  These slabs could be several feet thick and able to propagate widely across the slopes and terrain features.  North through East aspects will see the most amount of loading, but with our box canyon effect, even west and south aspects can see cross-loading.  Pay attention to obvious instabilities like shooting cracks off your boards, and watching for wind-drifted pillows, and harder firmer snow underfoot.  With such strong winds, you may find loading further down the slopes that you typically see.  Cornices have been growing and may break further back than you might expect if traveling on ridgelines.  Cornices breaking off can also act as a big trigger on a slope.  Below treeline and wind-sheltered terrain, you may get loose snow sluffing that could push you over a cliff or bury you in a terrain trap. 

    Storm slab avalanches will be dangerous on their own, but can also step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger and more destructive avalanche.  

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    New snow and slab formation are stressing deeper buried weak layers. Several weak layers currently exist in our snowpack on most aspects.  Near and below treeline had the shallowest and weakest snowpack before this storm, and avalanches here could fail on or near the ground in depth hoar. On solar aspects, there are faceted crusts, Many slopes still have the early January drought layer.  Any persistent slab avalanche would be large to very large,  breaking widely across terrain features, and may be 3 to 5 feet deep. These avalanches most likely would not be survivable.  Avoid being on or connected to slopes to slopes over 30 degrees giving avalanche paths wide berths as you could potentially remotely trigger an avalanche that breaks well above you. 

    Below and near treeline had a weak and shallow snowpack before this latest round of snow in February.  Upper elevations have a deeper snowpack with harder slabs that may take you finding a likely trigger point where the weak layers are easier to impact on the margins of the slab.  With so much snow, identifying these areas will be nearly impossible. 

    Photo: Andy Bond

Avalanche Discussion

It just won't stop snowing as another system overnight brought 5 to 7 inches and 0.45" of snow water equivalent (SWE).  W/SW winds picked up overnight and were in the teens and twenties gusting in the 40's.  This lower-density snow will easily be transported at upper elevations into sensitive and reactive storm slabs.  It's been an active weather period since February 2nd as two atmospheric river events and this latest storm have brought about 55 inches of snow and 4.75" of SWE.  Lingering showers tapper off later today with a brief lull into between storms before the next system pushes into our area Saturday mid-morning into Sunday.   

Visibility has not been great the last couple of days, but we have observed some large to very large avalanches that have run well into the flats below.  One of them was the Peace Sign which ran and put a large amount of debris across the "old" Williams Lake Trail that people frequent.  This west-facing slope gets cross-loaded and most likely started higher up with a slab on the surface stepping down into deeper weak layers.  This path had already this year with the middle of January storms, so we may see avalanche paths that already ran as repeat offenders. Another notable slide was a large D2 avalanche on a north aspect below treeline early in the morning.  We had been at the top of the start zone the day before, where we had a weak snowpack and shallow overall snowpack, but no results in extended column tests.  This was a factor of not having enough of a slab for propagation.  These latest storms unlike the February 2 -3rd storm came in with a lot of wind, and slab formation has been more widespread even in open and exposed areas below treeline. We have the perfect setup for avalanches to start within the storm snow and step down into deeper weak layers.     

 

There are several prominent weak layers in our snowpack depending on the elevation and aspect.  Most of the weak layers are found deeper down the snowpack and formed during the dry periods earlier in the season. Depth hoar and the early January drought facet layer continue to remain reactive in snowpits.  On solar aspects you many find faceted crusts that formed during the end of January warming event and we were even finding a buried near surface facet layer in between the Feb 2nd -3rd storm and Feb 7th storm.  Since February 2nd we've doubled our snowpack and weak layers are struggling to adjust to this added weight.  It's complex and challenging conditions out there. You can always avoid these avalanche problems by staying off and beneath terrain over 30 degrees.  Wind-sheltered low-angle terrain has great skiing and riding conditions right now. 

 

 

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