Avalanche forecast

Moab

Utah Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Today’s storm will not add significant stress to our buried weak layers and the overall danger remains MODERATE. Deep and dangerous human-triggered avalanches remain possible on steep slopes that face W-N-E-SE. The danger is most prominent on slopes that face NW-N-E. You are most likely to trigger an avalanche in thin snowpack areas. You can reduce your risk by avoiding steep, rocky areas and slopes with complex terrain features.

Strong Southerly winds have produced fresh slabs of wind-drifted snow above treeline where it is possible to trigger small avalanches on slopes that face NW-N-E.

A generally LOW danger exists on slopes facing S-SW.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    3

    We will likely see 1-3" of snow from today’s storm. This will not be enough of a load to significantly increase the stress on the deeply buried persistent weak layers (PWL) that formed in November and December. We saw widespread natural avalanche activity on these layers at the beginning of the month, and our last storm wrapped up on February 9th. We remain in a low likelihood, high consequence scenario where it is becoming harder to trigger an avalanche on the PWL, but if triggered, these avalanches would be large and life-threatening. If you are stepping out into avalanche terrain, evaluate each slope on an individual basis. Aim to ride in areas with a deep snowpack. Avoid steep, rocky terrain, thinner areas along slope margins, and steep, blind rollovers or convexities. These are all likely trigger points.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Strong Southerly winds continue to blow and drift snow into shallow soft slabs. Sensitive wind drifts will be found on the lee-side of ridge lines in the highest elevations. These will be small avalanches, but they might pack more of a punch today than they did yesterday. You can easily manage this problem by avoiding fat, round, pillowy-looking pieces of snow in alpine terrain.

Special Announcement

We are seeking a passionate individual to join us as Executive Director of the nonprofit Utah Avalanche Center. Click here for more information.

Road Conditions: The Geyser Pass Road is plowed but snowpacked and slick!

Grooming: LUNA groomed Gold Basin through Geyser Pass and set classic track on Sunday.

Recent Activity

See the full list of avalanche activity here

Snow and Weather

6:00 a.m. Snow and Weather Data

24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 1" Season Total Snow 132" Depth at Gold Basin 49"

Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: SSE 17 G 28 Temp 30° Percent of Normal: 100%

Weather

Strong Southerly winds continue to hammer the La Sals while a winter storm brings snow to points North. Precipitation will settle South this afternoon bringing light snow showers to our region. Accumulations will be light, with maybe 1-3" possible. Winds will continue to blow out of the SW at 20-25 mph. High temperatures will hover around 30 degrees in Gold Basin. The storm will clear out by tomorrow, and we will see a return to sunny skies on Thursday and Friday.

General Conditions

The story is the wind. Strong Southerlies have blown for three straight days making it more difficult to find good skiing. You may have to work for it, but the best skiing will be found in sheltered areas near treeline and below. In my travels on Monday, I was able to find soft, settled powder conditions in the mid-elevations. I observed shallow slabs of wind-drifted snow forming in isolated areas on the lee side of the highest elevation ridge lines. Slabs continue to build and I would expect them to be sensitive today if you happen to be poking around in the alpine. These sensitive wind drifts exist in the exact places I am currently avoiding. Steep and rocky alpine terrain remains the most likely place to trigger an avalanche failing on a deeply buried persistent weak layer of facets. It is becoming increasingly more difficult to trigger an avalanche on this weak layer, but you are most likely to trigger one on slopes with a shallow snowpack. You can stack the odds in your favor by avoiding complex terrain features, and skiing in areas with deep snow. Grab your shovel, or simply probe around. I have been finding safe and fun skiing on many slopes at the mid-elevations with a depth of 200 cm or more.

See the most recent observations here.

Check out this video for a discussion of our current, "Low probability - high consequence" scenario.

Snowpack and Weather Data

Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')

Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')

SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')

Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')

NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.

Additional Info

Want some more insight into the La Sal Mountains as well as the communal impacts of a tragic avalanche? Check out the latest UAC podcast with forecaster Eric Trenbeath where he discusses the range, it's often treacherous snowpack, and how the devastating avalanche in February, 1992, affected the Moab community.

Our avalanche beacon checker sign and beacon training park are up and running. A huge thanks to Talking Mountain Yurts for sponsoring those this season!

Sign up for forecast region-specific text message alerts. You will receive messages about changing avalanche conditions, watches, warnings and road plowing closures.

Follow us on Instagram @utavy_moab

General Announcements

This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Regions covered