Avalanche forecast

Avalanche forecast

Payette Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Wind slab avalanches 1-2' thick will be likely above 7000' today as SW winds will be blowing and drifting new snow into dense slabs at upper elevations. Wind slabs will be deepest and most sensitive on N, NE, and E-facing terrain near and just below ridgelines. Storm slab avalanches over a foot deep are possible on terrain steeper than 30 degrees below 8000'.

Today's forecast is sponsored by Outer Impact

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    1-2 feet of mountain snowfall along with SW winds will create sensitive wind slabs above 7000'. Wind slabs will likely be deepest and most reactive on N, NE, and E aspects around and just below ridgelines. Local terrain features can significantly alter prevailing wind patterns. Be on the lookout for fresh wind slab development across multiple aspects today, even as you travel down from ridgetops. Gullies, rollovers, and other micro-terrain features can become wind-loaded farther down the slope.  

    Watch for obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks. Pay attention to clues like drifts, pillows, and fresh cornices. If you feel dense snow overlying weaker, softer snow, you've found a wind slab. Watch slope angles today as they approach 30 degrees and manage terrain to help navigate today's new snow avalanche problems.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    The mountains picked up 6-10" overnight, with another 8-18" possible by Friday morning. This new storm snow will create sensitive storm slabs across all aspects at the middle and lower elevations. New snow has fallen on several inches of very light snow at the surface and 1-1.5' feet down there is a crust complex with weak snow that formed above and below the crust. All of the weight of this new snow will likely overload existing instabilities and create unstable conditions throughout the day. 

    Watch for clues of instability like shooting cracks from your skis, board, or sled. Pay attention to collapsing of weak layers and listen for the infamous "whumpfing" sound. 

Avalanche Discussion

Mindset

Over the last two weeks, mountain travelers have been enjoying good snowpack stability. The late January rain and warmup promoted healing and stability in the lower and middle portion of the snowpack. Avalanche problems over the last 10 days have consisted of new snow within the upper 1-1.5' of the snowpack. People were laying down some aggressive lines and stepping out into steep terrain. Today is a good time to dial it back and change that mindset from Free Ride (or Open Season) to one that is Stepping Back. A series of winter storms will be impacting the West Central Mountains through Friday morning. 1-2 feet of snow is forecasted with SW winds gusting in excess of 30 MPH. This weather change will cause the avalanche danger to rise. Storm and wind slab avalanche problems will create dangerous avalanche conditions across multiple aspects and elevation bands. The best way to manage today's avalanche problems is by constantly checking the slope angle and managing terrain. As instability increases, keep off and out from underneath slopes steeper than 30 degrees. 

The Friends of the Payette Avalanche Center (FPAC) will be hosting an Avalanche Awareness class this Saturday, February 17th at Brundage Mountain Resort. Visit our classes and events page for more information on how to sign up.