Avalanche forecast

West Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Direct sun and warm temperatures will make wet loose avalanche activity possible on Thursday, especially on or below steep rocky faces facing the sun. Keep in mind not only the slope below you, but the exposure above. Don’t linger below steep and sunlit faces and switch to a different aspect if you see signs of warming such as roller balls, pinwheels, and snow shedding from rocky faces.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    There are two types of wet avalanche issues you could encounter tomorrow. The first is the potential for a large chunk of snow to shed from a steep rocky face above. If these fall, they could trigger a deeper instability, or perhaps more likely, they could gouge into the snow below and grow in size as they descend. Manage these by paying attention to what's above you and limiting your overhead exposure to steep rocky terrain holding snow. If you do pass below these types of features, move quickly and one at a time. This is a lower likelihood, but potentially higher consequence problem than the other version of wet loose you may find tomorrow.

    The second flavor is the more traditional wet loose problem. Point releases of loose snow which can fan out and entrain snow as they slide downhill. There will likely be a surface crust on all but shady slopes at the highest elevations, and this crust will need to break down before this problem presents an issue. These could be human-triggered, or they could fail on their own. Look for roller balls, pinwheels, and sinking into the snow past your boot tops, and avoid being on or under steep slopes if you notice these signs. We don't anticipate these to be large tomorrow, but getting knocked off your feet in consequential terrain is a problem regardless of avalanche size. 

    Bonus Concern: Give cornices a wide berth on Thursday. They are big, bulbous, and can fail with warming.

    (2/16/2024)

    Wet loose avalanche activity during clear skies on the southern half of the compass. These types of avalanches are possible in Thursday on steep sunlit slopes.

    Photo: Julz Holder - Grounding Truth

Avalanche Discussion

Forecasting for wet avalanche problems brings inherent uncertainty, especially for solar induced warming this time of year. How much warming has the slope in question undergone in the past few days? Will the warming it experiences tomorrow be more significant than the prior days? Will the clouds come in earlier tomorrow than we think? Hard to say. Daylight is short this time of year, timing of sun exposure impacts the magnitude of warming, and it just doesn't seem like the West South has warmed up all that much so far. It's possible that Thursday's sunnier skies and warmer temperatures could lead to a modest uptick of wet avalanche instability.

If clouds come in early and you don't see any signs of warming, then avalanche danger may wind up lower than anticipated. Either way, you'll need to manage very challenging travel in the backcountry. There is still dry snow on shady aspects somewhere above 6000-6500', but remember that you will have to exit through some combination of hard crust, breakable crust, frozen tree bombs and debris, and mush to get yourself back to the trailhead. Other than the rather unpleasant travel conditions, light winds and sunny skies should make for a beautiful day in the mountains!

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