Avalanche forecast

Turnagain Pass and Girdwood

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

With another potent storm on the doorstep this weekend, the avalanche danger will be on the rise throughout the day and overnight hours tonight.  Through the Turnagain Pass area there is 1-2' of soft snow available for transport that may form fresh wind slabs 1-3' deep as winds are forecasted to increase from the SSE.  Additionally, we may see rain on snow as high as 1,800' late in the day.  If that verifies, wet loose avalanches could be a concern in steep terrain, and may pull out a slab avalanche 1-3' down. 

Today will be a good day to ensure you are out of the field before the weather makes a turn for the worse.

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

This weekend's storm is expected to have widespread impacts in Southcentral Alaska, and it is looking like Hatcher Pass is right in the crosshairs. Visit hpavalanche.org for more information.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2.5

    Yesterday's field day confirmed that snow from Tuesday's storm seems to be bonding pretty well to the underlying surface, 48-hrs post storm.  The few avalanches we investigated throughout the Pass appear to all have similar  characteristics; 1-2' deep, and running mid-storm (Tuesday) with start zones just below ridgelines, indicating wind slabs.  Be cautious of additional fresh wind slabs forming today just below leeward ridges.  The Tuesday storm interface will be the likely bed surface, 1-3' down.

    Cornice: Cornices continue to grow with the steady march of warm storms and may be sensitive to the weight of a person or machine.   Anticipate cornices to break further back than expected and give corniced ridges a wide margin.

    Wet loose: With temps climbing and an atmospheric river pointing up Cook Inlet, we may see rain on snow and wet loose avalanches in the mid-elevations late in the day.  These are likely to take the shape of small point releases or rollerballs on very steep slopes.  If they pick up enough mass or gouge deep enough, we could see these initiate a more dangerous slab avalanche. 

    Deep Persistent Slab: We haven't seen any evidence of this problem since the weak layer was buried over 2-weeks ago.  We're feeling more confident that this problem is dormant  but there are still large swaths of the core zone that are untested and untraveled.  With generally a shallower snowpack on the southern end of Turnagain Pass, this is where a person would be more likely to find this avalanche problem.   

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