Avalanche forecast

Seward and Lost Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
4 · High
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Highlights

We have issued a Backcountry Avalanche Warning through the National Weather Service. An intense storm is bringing heavy precipitation with very strong winds, making very large natural avalanches very likely. These may run long distances into flat, low-elevation terrain below steeper slopes. Avalanche conditions are very dangerous, and traveling in and below avalanche terrain is not recommended.

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

Avalanche Closure Notification for Sunday January 26th, 2025: There will be intermittent traffic delays Sunday January 26th, 2025 on the Seward Highway for Avalanche Hazard Reduction work for the following areas:

From milepost 95-100 on the Seward Highway, Between Girdwood and Anchorage in Bird Flats. Motorists should expect delays of up to 45 minutes between 09:00 AM and 12:00 PM.

 From mileposts 38 to 37 on the Seward Highway, at the Seward Highway / Sterling Highway Wye. Motorists should expect delays of 45-60 minutes between 1:00 PM and 4:00 PM.

Updates will be posted on the 511 system. http://511.alaska.gov

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1.5–3

    We're in the midst of an impressive storm system, which is expected to continue into the night before moving out tomorrow morning. The rain line ended up staying slightly below what the models were predicting, and we've seen significant accumulation at elevations as low as 1500-2000' in the Seward area. Here's what we've recorded since the snow started falling mid day Friday:

    • Girdwood: 4.7" snow water equivalent (SWE)/3-4' snow
    • Turnagain Pass: 1.7" SWE/12-18" snow
    • Summit Lake: 1.5" SWE/12-18" snow
    • Seward/Lost Lake: 2.0" SWE/18-24" snow

    This snow has been accompanied by very strong southeasterly winds, which have averaged 20 to 45 mph over the past 24 hours, gusting over 80 mph at times. Needless to say, avalanche danger is through the roof right now. Expect very dangerous avalanche conditions through the day, with very large natural avalanches very likely as the storm continues. These have the potential to run long distances into low-elevation runout zones. If you are considering getting out to witness the carnage, be sure to give steep terrain a very wide berth and avoid traveling on or below avalanche terrain.

    (1/26/2025)

    Predicted snowfall totals from Sunday morning through Monday morning. Graphic courtesy of NWS Anchorage.

    Photo: Andrew Schauer

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    This system has brought heavy rain to the lower elevations in the Seward zone, making wet loose avalanches another concern. These may occur naturally, and can also be triggered by a person. Although they are smaller and slower-moving than the storm slab avalanches mentioned in Problem 1 above, they could still be dangerous if they were to carry you through rocks or trees. They could also quickly become a serious concern if they were to push you into a creek or gully. Be on the lookout for these wet snow avalanches below around 1500-2000' where most of the precipitation has fallen as rain so far.

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