Avalanche forecast

Northwest Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

You will encounter dangerous avalanche conditions on many slopes facing west through north through east.  A recent reduction in signs of instability like cracking and collapsing may suggest improving conditions, but this is not the case.  Steep slopes have a shallower snowpack than non-avalanche terrain due to previous avalanche activity and remain primed for human-triggered avalanches.  The evidence is overwhelming; human-triggered avalanches occurred nearly every day for two weeks, including several 'close calls'.  Conservative slope angles under 30 degrees are your best defense when traveling on suspect aspects.  Wind-sheltered southerly slopes offer a lower-risk snowpack.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Slabs averaging 1 to 3 feet thick in sheltered terrain and larger in wind-loaded terrain will be most sensitive to triggers where they formed over fragile facets and collapsible crusts on west, north, east, and high southeast aspects.  Slab behavior is becoming more challenging as slabs stiffen and thicken, with dozens of recent remote triggers and slabs propagating wider across terrain features.  You may not see obvious warning signs, such as collapses or cracking, before triggering an avalanche. You can reliably avoid the problem on slope angles less than 30 degrees without steeper slopes above you.    

Avalanche Discussion

Abnormal, unusual, and deadly are three good words to describe avalanche conditions around the area.  Dangerous conditions persisted for two weeks, which is not normal even by 'Colorado' snowpack standards.  Human-triggered avalanches were documented every day from December 27th through January 8th!  Yesterday, January 9th, was the first day without a recorded human-triggered slide in the Crested Butte area.  It's hard to ignore such overt evidence.

If you wish to avoid an avalanche accident, the recipe for safety is simple; Pick terrain with slope angles less than 30 degrees without steeper slopes above when traveling on aspects highlighted by the Persistent Slab rose.  If you choose to ride steep terrain on suspect aspects, you are playing a deadly game of chance where the odds are strongly NOT in your favor.

Wind-sheltered southerly terrain has shown little avalanche activity recently and offers a less problematic snowpack structure.  Even though the snowpack has shown few signs of instability, forecasters recorded several natural avalanches from last week on sunny slopes and found a few propagating test results.  If you choose to ride steeper terrain on southerly aspects, make careful slope-specific snowpack assessments before you commit.

A northerly wind event on Wednesday night and Thursday may have formed thin, sensitive slabs on the south half of the compass.  Observers near Scarp Ridge noted isolated distribution and a very small size on Thursday.  For that reason, the Wind Slab problem was removed from products today.  If you see signs of recent drifting on steep sunny terrain, steer around these fresh drifts to avoid triggering a small avalanche.

This morning, the most recent Weekly Summary is available (you can click this link or find it in the Weekly Summaries tab just above the danger rating icon). It provides a great overview of recent conditions and more insight than this discussion. Pour yourself a second cup of coffee and dive in.

 

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