Avalanche forecast

Olympics

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

After a round of wind and snow to start the weekend, Sunday should be more tranquil.  You're likely to find new and generally shallow wind slabs near and below ridgelines Sunday.  Steer around steeper slopes where you find smooth pillow-like drifts and denser wind-pressed snow. If you see warning signs like shooting cracks or new avalanches, step back to lower-angled and less consequential terrain. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Several inches of snow fell during the day Saturday along with strong southerly winds.  A few more inches are possible Saturday night as winds switch to the NW.  You're most likely to find and trigger wind slabs on NW-N-SE aspects Sunday.  Keep in mind that a layer of surface hoar may be under a few inches of new snow on northerly aspects and below ridgelines.  You can use quick hand pits to see if a thin grey line (surface hoar) is present in the upper snowpack. If you see shooting cracks, feel collapses, or see recent avalanches, the chances of triggering an avalanche are elevated in this area and you need to be more conservative with your terrain selection.  

    Newly formed cornices will give you clues as to which aspects are being loaded.  You can choose lower-angled entrances off of ridgelines to avoid triggering a wind slab in the new snow.  

    Even though we don't expect widespread large avalanches, you'll need to consider the consequences of a small slide in the wrong piece of terrain. That could include taking a rough ride over hard, chunky avalanche debris from last week or barely buried rocks, trees, etc.  

    Wind features and cornices along ridgelines can help you identify which aspects may harbor new wind slabs. 

    Photo: Kaitlin (1/6/2023)

Avalanche Discussion

A frontal system brought some blustery winds, poor visibility, and light to moderate snow to the Ridge for much of Saturday.  While our weather station was down, nearby Snotels reported a few inches of snow.  We should expect that the new snow was blowing around and forming fresh wind slabs in the near and above treeline elevation bands. Friday was a cloudy and mild day with no new avalanches reported. 

On Thursday, Professional observer Sam Luthy was back at Hurricane Ridge.  2-4" of new snow could be found over what we're regionally calling the MLK crust in wind sheltered areas, with up to 8" on wind-loaded lee slopes above treeline.  He found widespread surface hoar on all aspects.  While this layer likely did not surive on wind or sun exposed slopes, it could be just below the surface on northerlies and make trigger a slab avalanche more likely.  Southerly aspects in higher terrain were largely scoured with lots of exposed rocks showing.  No new avalanches were observed (just small rollerballs and small wet loose on steep sunny aspects) but there was plenty of frozen debris from last weekend, especially on avalanche paths emanating from above treeline and northerly aspects. This debris is a travel challenge on its own, sometimes barely covered by new snow and sometimes barely buried.  We're still below normal snowpack-wise, so plan extra time to navigate other travel challenges and hazards, especially at lower elevations. 

2022-2023 Forecast Schedule

NWAC will issue an avalanche forecast every Friday, Saturday and Sunday and every holiday mid-week day the Hurricane Ridge Road is open from December-early April.  We will issue Avalanche Watches or Warnings when conditions warrant.  New for this season, we will not update the non-holiday midweek discussion.  Our mountain weather forecasts will continue to cover the Olympics and are issued twice a day through late April.  If you have questions or feedback, please contact us at [email protected] and [email protected]. 

If you're out in the snow, share your observations with us and your local backcountry community.

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