Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Upper elevations may still harbor pockets of unstable wind drifted snow where you could trigger an avalanche. Look for these smooth, pillowlike drifts and steer around these features where you find them in steep terrain. With a low likelihood, high consequence chance of triggering a large and dangerous avalanche on an older weak layer, default to low angle slopes to reduce your exposure. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    While only a few inches of snow fell over the weekend, the westerly winds were consistently strong and drifted snow over ridges forming stiff wind slabs on lee aspects. While most of these may be small and becoming more difficult to trigger, you could still trigger an avalanche in lingering pockets. You can find these wind slabs on the down-wind side of ridges, below cornices, and peppered in the alpine. Cornices, textured surfaces, and smooth pillowlike features are all ways to identify wind slabs. Before committing to steep slopes in wind exposed areas, look for signs of instability in small test slopes, such as long shooting cracks. Steer around these stiff drifts of snow where they exist on slopes greater than 35 degrees. If you find yourself traveling at higher elevations on shaded slopes ( N-NE- E), consider the consequence of a wind slab stepping down into a deeper buried weak layer and producing a much larger, destructive avalanche. 

    (1/21/2023)

    These cornice formations and textured surfaces are a good indication that wind slabs are present on this slope. 

    Photo: Katie Warren

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    It will be a sunny day in the East Central zone on Monday. While there isn't much new snow, a healthy dose of sunshine and warming temperatures will likely lead to small wet loose avalanches in steep, sunny slopes. Cliffs, rocks, and tree bombs are often where these avalanches initiate from, so be aware of overhead hazard from steep sunny terrain. If you feel the snow beneath you becoming sticky with wet surfaces in the sun, move to lower angle or shadier terrain. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–2.5

    In the East Central zone, there has not been an avalanche on this layer since before the MLK storm. However, it has been less than a week since a skier triggered an avalanche on this layer at Stevens Pass. While it is becoming increasingly unlikely to trigger, there is still some uncertainty, particularly about this layer's spotty, inconsistent distribution and reactivity. We expect that N-NE-E aspects at elevations above 6000ft, in open terrain sheltered from wind, are the most likely locations to find this layer. But even targeting these locations throughout the zone, layer distribution has proven to be spotty. Use snow pits to identify this layer 1-2.5ft below the surface and look for a thin gray line of feathery, buried surface hoar grains. The best way to handle the uncertainty of these dangerous avalanches is to put a wide buffer between where you travel and large steep features. You can reduce your exposure by traveling on ridges or slopes less than 30 degrees.

    (1/19/2023)

    Large avalanche on a layer of buried surface hoar. NE at 6,200ft on Jim Hill. The crown was 1-2ft deep.

    Photo: Ryan Minton

Avalanche Discussion

On Saturday, our NWAC intern Brooke Maushund and I investigated a very widely propagating avalanche in Turnpike creek in the Ingalls watershed. We believe that the natural avalanche occurred during the storm of the 13h or 14th. While the avalanche is now older, it was a good indicator that the January 4th surface hoar has been active in this part of the zone. 

On Friday, Joe Dellaporta and Josh Hirshberg traveled into the Blewett Pass area. The calm and clear nights have caused snow surfaces to become weak and sugary. In most locations, they observed either surface hoar or near-surface facets sitting above the MLK rain crust. Keep this on your mind as you travel since it could be tomorrow's buried weak layer. 

Regions covered