Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions continue to exist at all elevations as recent snowfall and wind have built sensitive slabs on top of very weak and fragile faceted layers near the ground.  You can trigger a  slab on the surface in the storm snow that could be big enough to injure or bury you, but there is also the possibility that it could step down into deeper weak layers taking with it most of the season's snowpack.  These persistent slab avalanches could break widely across the slope and most likely would not be survivable. Pay attention to obvious warning signs like loud audible collapses and shooting cracks as these are indications you've found unstable snow.  It's possible to trigger an avalanche from a long distance away so avoid being on or connected to slopes steeper 30 degrees today.  

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Most slopes currently have very weak and fragile facets and depth hoar on or near the ground that formed during the prolonged November dry periods. Recent snow and wind loading over the last week have built  1 to 4-foot cohesive slabs on top of these persistent weak layers leading to this poor snowpack structure of strong over weak.  These weak layers haven't received much of a break over the last week and will continue to struggle to adjust to the recent load. At lower elevations where slabs are not as thick, you're more likely to get these weak layers to collapse to trigger an avalanche. At upper elevations, weak layers are buried under deeper stiffer slabs and may take you finding that "sweet spot" in likely trigger points near rock outcroppings and on the margins of the slab. These persistent slab avalanches can break widely across the slope or terrain features and could be very large taking with it most of the season's snowpack and most likely would not be survivable.  You can trigger one of these large avalanches from a long distance away, so continue to give steep slopes above you wide berths.      

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Recent snow and moderate to strong winds have built storm slabs at all elevations.  Another system pushes into our mountains this afternoon and will add to the already two feet of snow that has fallen in the last week.  These slabs will grow in size at upper elevations on the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain features. With an abundance of snow in the fetches, transportable wind speeds have drifted snow into deeper and stiffer slabs that may be 3 to 4 feet deep. Triggering an avalanche on the surface can be dangerous on its own, but there is a strong possibility that a storm slab avalanche will step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche.   

Avalanche Discussion

Storm totals over the last week are currently at 26" of snow with 2.6" of snow water equivalent (SWE). Yesterday was a beautiful sunny day, with light winds and today will start out with similar weather. Things will change early this afternoon into tonight as the next system approaches.  Snow totals look to be relatively modest with this system of 4 to 8 inches and moderate south winds shifting easterly tonight as a back door cold front pushes in. Our snowpack hasn't had much of a break over the last week, and the parade of storms will continue with a fourth system impacting northern NM Sunday night into Monday.  

Over the last week, we've seen steady light to moderate snowfall and transportable wind speeds that have been loading slopes and pushing us closer to a tipping point of the faceted weak layers deeper down in the snowpack. Conditions really ramped up Wednesday afternoon as the snowpack became a lot more sensitive in travels, with widespread collapses, shooting cracks, and human-triggered avalanches. We also started seeing more natural avalanche activity at all elevations with some slopes producing large to very large avalanches breaking on or near the ground and running long distances into the flats.  Although peak instability most likely has passed for now, as slabs were not as sensitive yesterday. With more storms in the forecast, the snowpack won't get much of a rest and will continue to stress deeper weak layers and continue to make conditions ripe for human-triggered avalanches. 

It probably sounds like a broken record at this point, as we've seen the persistent slab problem keep avalanche conditions elevated for much of January.  It's been some years since we've seen conditions like this as we've had a slower start to the season with now an active weather pattern in January bringing modest storms with winds.  Hopefully, with a deepening snowpack, we'll start to turn the corner and see the persistent weak layers near the ground start to heal and strengthen in the coming weeks.  However that process doesn't happen overnight and will take some time.  Until then we'll continue to need to be patient before stepping out into steep terrain.  You can still find great skiing and riding in lower-angle wind-sheltered terrain that doesn't have steep slopes overhead.     

 

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