Northern New Mexico

You can trigger a large and dangerous persistent slab avalanche at all elevations on west through north to southeast aspects.  Cohesive slabs of snow sit on top of faceted weak layers and depth hoar near the ground.  Obvious signs of instability like loud audible collapses and shooting cracks may not be present and give you a false sense of security in travels. Give avalanche path runnouts wide berths as it's still possible to trigger an avalanche from below or adjacent slopes.  Before committing to a slope, consider the consequences if you were to trigger an avalanche, as there is a possibility it could take with it most of the season's snowpack.   

An upper-level trough pushes through NM today with much of the snow focused to our east near Raton and southeastern CO.  A back-door cold front and wrap-around snow with northeast winds will keep light snow showers in the forecast today, but accumulations will be light with 1 to 3 inches of snow forecasted.  Over the last several days we've picked up dribs and drabs of snow each day and light winds.  3 to 5 inches of snow has fallen since last Sunday with about 0.3" of snow water equivalent (SWE). This gradual loading has been a good refresh for skiing and riding conditions but there hasn't been enough weight or slab development to make weak layers become more reactive and for us to increase the avalanche danger.  

Although the avalanche danger is at moderate for all elevations, the snowpack is still hard to fully trust as weak layers continue to remain widespread and reactive in stability tests.  1 to 3-foot slabs from storms and wind events from January 4th through the 18th  formed on top of a shallow faceted snowpack that existed prior. During that two-week timeframe, we had widespread natural avalanches as well as human-triggered avalanches at all elevations on west through north to southeast aspects.  Over the last week plus, we haven't been seeing natural avalanche activity and obvious signs of instability like loud collapses have become less frequent and more isolated in travels. Weak layers, however, have not been healing, and continue to remain weak, and will continue to be a problem for us, especially once we do get another significant loading event.   

Our current setup is very similar to what other places in the west are dealing with right now. Unfortunately, there was an avalanche fatality near Ophir CO on the 22nd.  Most of southern CO has been dealing with a similar snowpack to ours. Our condolences go out to all those affected by this incident. 

There are two distinct persistent weak layers in the snowpack. A faceted weak layer formed on the surface during the post-Christmas dry period that lasted until January 4th.  This faceted layer exists just beneath slabs that formed from the January storms and wind events.  A little deeper down in the snowpack, especially below and near treeline, depth hoar has formed near the ground.  Depending on the slope you're on, you may find one or the other, or both weak layers present. 

Below treeline, the snowpack continues to remain weak and still relatively shallow (<120cm in most spots) with boot penetration to the ground in most spots. There is enough of a cohesive slab that it is supportable while on boards, but weak layers continue to remain easy to impact and collapse. Above treeline, the snowpack is slightly deeper and has harder slabs closer to the surface from strong wind events earlier in the season.  Triggering an avalanche may just take finding that "sweet spot" on the margins of the slab or near rock outcroppings.  It may not be the first person on the slope to find that likely trigger point, but if you do, it could produce a large avalanche.

A ridge of high pressure is building over the west this weekend through the middle of next week, bringing above-average temperatures for this time of year.  We could see temperatures climb into the 40's by by Sunday through Wednesday.  A more active weather pattern sets up at the end of next week through the beginning of February.