Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Recent snowfall and westerly winds maintain dangerous conditions.  Natural avalanche activity is unlikely today without any additional wind loading.  You could find easy-to-trigger avalanche conditions on recently drifted terrain and in sheltered areas where you find slabs 1 to 2 feet thick resting above surface hoar on west to north to east slopes.  Take a cautious approach to your terrain choices by selecting lower angled slopes to manage the avalanche problem.  Wind-sheltered southerly slopes offer a lower risk of slab avalanches but pay attention to warming surface snow throughout the day.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    A new round of weak layers was buried on February 2nd. These weak layers consist of widespread surface hoar and facets on most east, north, and west-facing slopes, and along with some faceted crusts on higher elevation southerly aspects. Slabs about 1 to 2 feet thick over these weak layers are sensitive to skiers and riders. This avalanche problem can be remotely triggered from flat terrain, or may propagate further than expected.  Shooting cracks or collapses are a clear sign of danger, but these obvious signs of instability will not always show themselves before an avalanche releases.  There is isolated potential to trigger older, larger slabs on weak layers deeper in the snowpack, most likely from shallow terrain features or step-down avalanches.  

    You can reliably avoid trouble on terrain with slope angles less than 30 degrees that are free from overhead steep terrain. Lower elevation southerly aspects offer safer options for steep terrain.  

     

    A fresh natural avalanche on Whestone's Hidden Lake Bowl.  It appears as though a shallow Wind Slab at ridge top released a deeper slab below the cliffs as it ran.  This type of avalanche activity should be expected in the Southeast Mountains on drifted terrain highlighted by the Persistent Slab rose.

    Photo: Jake Hutchinson

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Up to 7 inches of recent snow and westerly winds formed drifts on leeward terrain.  Look for fetch areas scoured by the wind and the stiff, dense drifts on the leeward side of the terrain to identify the problem.  Drifts will be forming below cornices, leeward ridgelines, and in gulleys or concave catchments at higher elevations.     There is potential for wind slabs to step down and trigger a much larger persistent slab avalanche where it overlaps on the Persistent Slab rose, like this recent avalanche on Mt. Owen or this avalanche on Whetstone. 

    Recent Wind Slabs on the east aspects of Gothic Mountain.

    (2/22/2024) Photo: Zach Guy

Avalanche Discussion

Northwest Mountains:  Up to a foot of recent snowfall was blown by westerly winds over several days.  Poor visibility on Thursday thwarted views into the range and left some uncertainty about the extent of recent natural avalanche activity.  One observer noted a large recent avalanche in Yogi's on Schuylkill Ridge (northeast-facing, near treeline) that may have failed a few feet deep.  This serves as a good reminder that the surface hoar layer buried in early February remains problematic, particularly for terrain with recent drifting.  Remain suspicious if you plan to travel through terrain highlighted by the Persistent Slab rose; signs of instability have been relatively infrequent and may not warn you before releasing a dangerous avalanche.  Multiple tracks could be on the slope before someone finds the right spot to impact the weak layer.  You can always select low-angled slopes to manage the risk, but if you choose to ride steeper terrain, it would be wise to select terrain with less severe consequences.  Cautiously approach steep terrain with a keen eye for the consequences as a triggered avalanche on the surface hoar layer will be large and dangerous.  Persistent weak layers like surface hoar often surprise skilled professionals.

Southeast Mountains:  Avalanche conditions continue to hover near a dangerous level around the Southeast Mountains.  Generally, slabs above the early February weak layer (and basal weak layers) are thinner and more prone to human triggering.  Recent wind drifting makes it more likely for you to trigger an avalanche deeper in the snowpack.  A second-hand observation from upper Cement Creek, suggested deep failing avalanches near Hunter Hill and Crystal Peak in the past few days (forecasters plan to travel through this area today to get more details).  Avoiding terrain with recent drifting is a straightforward choice today.  In sheltered areas, the slab above the February surface hoar layer is 1 to 2 feet thick which leaves it squarely within the depth for human-triggers.  One observation from below treeline in the Southeast Mountains suggested a decreasing sensitivity to human triggers with moderate results in an Extended Column Test.  This merely suggests an incremental improvement in avalanche conditions; we are far from being out of the woods, particularly in the Southeast Mountains where slabs are thin.  Carefully manage slope angles in sheltered terrain highlighted by the Persistent Slab rose to reduce the risk of avalanche.

Regions covered