Avalanche forecast

Togwotee Pass

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
No rating
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Triggering an avalanche 2-3+ feet thick remains likely today in steep, rocky areas. Large avalanches were observed yesterday—and one of these slides could take out most of the winter's snowpack, even on small but steep slopes. You can reduce most of the risk by sticking to lower slope angles and avoiding shallow areas in the snowpack or areas with obvious wind-rippled or harder snow.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Recent snowfall and wind continue to stress weaker snow around 2-4+ feet deep. Assume this snow exists on most east, north, and west-facing slopes. In the last few days, these weak layers have received an increase in loading. The recent clear weather revealed avalanches on both layers and human-triggered activity occurred yesterday. Your weight may more easily impact them at middle elevations where the slab is thinner in rocky areas. It isn't easy to know how thick the snowpack is on a given slope, so consider your terrain choices carefully.  Recent natural and human-triggered avalanches are evidence that the snowpack is still adjusting.  Safer travel options always exist by sticking to slopes less than ~30 degrees without steep slopes above you. Though the likelihood of triggering is trending downward, the possibility (and consequences) have remained the same.

    Avoiding terrain where both of these problems overlap will be key.

     

    (2/19/2024)

    Avalanches that occurred yesterday northwest of Sublette Peak.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Winds have built 1-3’ thick slabs in exposed upper-elevation terrain. Watch out for corniced ridgelines (both riding near them or being below them), or areas on creek gullies with overhanging snow. Be looking for wind-affected snow, such as drifts or wavy textures. New snow and wind equal weight on various weak layers in the snowpack and this stress is amplified in areas where dense, thick wind slabs have formed during recent strong winds. Smaller wind slab avalanches have the potential to step down to more deeply buried weak layers. This could result in a larger avalanche, which is why they are a secondary concern to the problem above, but still something to watch out for while moving in the mountains today. Drifted snow deeper than 8” is a red flag. Suspect features include exposed ridges, rocky areas, cross-loaded terrain, and gullies.

     

Avalanche Discussion

Building on yesterday's forecast discussion, I recently spoke with a close friend and fellow snow human about his near-miss accident during Moderate hazard. This occurred several days ago in an area with a sensitive snowpack until fairly recently, similar to here. Though we're still at Considerable at Togwotee, the lessons from this story still apply. This season has been the season of being on guard for most of the winter across the West, and any drop in hazard rating can make it feel like the floodgates are open. His retelling of the story, feelings about his decisions, and group communication feel all too familiar. They were tired, pressed for time after a long day, and the feature descended had a shallower snowpack than many other areas in the zone. They chose not to look at the snow, committed to the slope though they all felt off about it, and the third skier triggered a large avalanche that flushed the entire path. This serves as a good learning experience by proxy. Again, we are all fallible. When I was younger, I sometimes would find myself relying more on the narratives of others: "They skied it yesterday" or simply coasting on feelings like: "Do I think this will slide?" If my brain's magic eightball conclusion was no, I went for it. This reasoning leaves little room for error since whether a slope will slide is difficult to answer without at least some uncertainty. And it turned out I answered this question wrong a few times. Nowadays, I operate more from where I have uncertainty and a place of: "Would I be totally surprised if this avalanched/avalanched in an unexpected way?" Hedge your decisions in data, take several minutes to pause, regroup your thoughts, check in with your partners, and look at the snowpack beneath your boards or sled.

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