Avalanche forecast

Togwotee Pass

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
No rating
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Highlights

Triggering an avalanche 2-3 feet thick is likely today in steep, rocky areas. You’re most likely to trigger one of these slabs on steep, upper elevation slopes that have been affected by the wind. Avalanches may be triggered remotely from below, to the sides, and above steeper terrain. Careful evaluation of the snowpack and conservative decision making is recommended today.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Winds have built slabs 1-3’ thick in exposed upper elevation terrain. Wind directions over the past several days have been variable. As a result, slabs could have formed on a wide variety of aspects. Suspect features include exposed ridges, rocky areas, cross loaded terrain, and gullies. Be on the lookout for wind affected snow such as drifts or wavy textures. A day of warm sunny weather has made these slabs more stubborn in some locations, however, human triggering remains possible. Probing the snowpack for hardness changes (hard over soft) is a good way to identify these slabs.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Snowfall and wind over the past two weeks has created thick slabs at the middle and upper elevations. The recently formed slabs are sitting on weak layers of snow that can be found at different depths in the snowpack. Avalanches involving these weak layers could break 2-4 feet deep. Steep, rocky, and wind loaded terrain on the north half of the compass is most suspect. Recent natural and human triggered avalanches are evidence that the snowpack is still adjusting to the most recent load. Give steep terrain a wide margin today and avoid slopes with terrain traps such as steep gullies. There is a lot of new snow and it doesn’t take much to have serious consequences in these features. Triggering an avalanche from below the slope remains possible. As a result, it is important to keep track of the terrain that is above you, not just below.

    A persistent slab avalanche that was remotely triggerd by a snowmobile yesterday (2/17).

Avalanche Discussion

The most recent storm brought 18-22” of snow with 1-1.3” of snow water equivalent (SWE) to the Togwotee Pass area over the past 4 days. This is a significant load that is sitting on a poor structure. In the long term, the snow that we have received in February is good news for overall stability. It will help to heal buried weak layers and make them difficult for humans to trigger. Unfortunately, the loading event is too recent to trust the snowpack at the moment. Recent natural and human triggered avalanches are evidence that conditions remain dangerous. The snowpack is still adjusting to the recent loading, despite the signs becoming more difficult to detect. Patience and conservative decision making are recommended while the snowpack adjusts. Building in an extra margin of safety to account for surprises is a good idea today.

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