Avalanche forecast

Central Cascades

Central Oregon Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

As the bulk of new snowfall becomes a thing of the past, avalanche danger will decrease.  Human triggered avalanches will still be possible throughout the terrain on Tuesday.  Near treeline and at alpine elevations Wind Slab avalanches will be possible on any slopes that the wind has blown snow onto.  Large avalanches on persistent weak layers deeper in the snowpack remain possible.  Avoid trigger points and be wary of steep, unsupported slopes.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    We've received 10-12 cm. of new snow since Sunday.  Moderate wind speeds in the forecast and lots of soft snow available for transport means that Wind Slab avalanches will definitely be possible on Tuesday.  If you venture up to higher elevations or windier terrain look for signs of recent blowing snow like:  surface textures associated with wind scouring, variable snow depth or surface snow hardness as you move onto different aspects, and signs of recent cornice growth.  Cracking on steep wind-loaded test slopes is probably the best indicator of a Wind Slab problem.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5–3

    Last Friday multiple avalanches were triggered that failed on a layer of small facets now buried 2-3 feet deep (above the prominent crust layer).  Since then there have been observations of collapses and whumphing but avalanche activity has tapered off.  This weak layer seems to be isolated in nature.  As it gets deeper it will become harder to trigger but the resulting avalanche would be bigger.  Does this sound familiar?  At this point I'm behaving a bit like I was during the middle of January when we had a similar problem.  I'm avoiding steep, unsupported slopes, and staying out of bigger more committing terrain.  It is possible that this is the last we'll see of this particular weak layer but it is too soon to say so.

Avalanche Discussion

I haven't been able to find any persistent weak layers in the last 3 profiles that I've dug (two test profiles at Tam Rim and one full profile at Tumalo).  Nonetheless, the touchy mid storm conditions we experienced last week are a bit too recent for me to count out the possibility of more avalanches on this layer.  I'll be traveling a bit more conservatively than I otherwise would, and I'll be digging a lot in the near future.

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