Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Last weekend's storm produced less snowfall in the Southeast Mountains and thus less avalanche hazard due to a smaller avalanche size.   You can trigger avalanches near and above treeline on slopes facing northwest through north through east and some could be large enough to bury you.  Previously drifted terrain is the most concerning.  You can find a safer snowpack below treeline and on southerly-facing slopes.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    You will find a fragile base to the snowpack on northerly and easterly aspects from the early seasonal snowfall that accumulated back in October. Over the past week, up to 1.5 feet of snow has fallen on top of these Persistent Weak Layers. This past weekend, the neighboring NW Mountain Forecast Area had a notable natural avalanche cycle and several close calls with human-triggered avalanches. We observed fewer natural avalanches in the SE Mountain Forecast Area, however, we lack data given the shallow snow depths and difficult conditions for winter travel. The most suspect areas for this avalanche problem will be on previously wind-loaded northerly and easterly facing slopes and where the total snowpack is near or above 2.5ft on the same aspects. Obvious warning signs could include shooting cracks, a collapsing snowpack, or past avalanche activity.  Don't count on signs of instability to warn you of potential danger for terrain highlighted on the distribution rose. 

    This persistent slab avalanche was remotely triggered from below in the NW Mountain Forecast Area. 11/26

Avalanche Discussion

Since last weekend the avalanche hazard slowly improved under stable weather conditions.  Most slopes below treeline don't pose much threat for slab avalanches.  Recent cold weather has weakened the slabs that formed during the second half of November and left a soft, weak snowpack throughout.  However, there could be an isolated slope or terrain feature with just enough strength for a slab avalanche.  One of these isolated slopes is more likely to be found in the Northwest Mountains and not in the Southeast Mountains.  Look for signs of instability like collapsing or cracking to help alert you to one of these isolated slopes.

Upper elevation slopes highlighted by the Persistent Slab problem continue to present worrisome structures with a clear strong over weak snowpack.  Selecting conservative terrain is the best way to manage the problem if you travel on suspect aspects at upper elevations.  A safer choice would be to travel on sunny aspects at upper elevations where you are unlikely to encounter the problem.

Looking forward, a prolonged stormy period is forecasted to begin Thursday night and last through early next week.  Expect avalanche hazards to worsen in the coming day with a good chance that we experience dangerous conditions.  Weak snow is common across the mountains and you should anticipate that the safe slopes of today could become dangerous this weekend.  Follow the forecast each day to stay ahead of the changing conditions.

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