Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

There are only isolated areas with enough snow, but avalanches may be easy to trigger as new snow builds up on weak or icy surfaces. The most suspect areas are shady mid-elevation slopes and wind-drifted slopes near ridges. Rocks, creeks, and other hidden obstacles can increase the consequences of an avalanche.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    You may be able to easily trigger wind slabs that form over weak or icy surfaces. Winds will likely pick up into the moderate range in the morning on Friday and drift the new low-density snow into stiff slabs. Avoid steep slopes if you observe shooting cracks or feel the snow collapse beneath you. While these avalanches are not expected to be large, even a small avalanche could drag you through exposed rocks or creeks.Wind-loaded terrain at higher elevations currently holds the most snow and is the most likely place to trigger an avalanche. However, areas at mid-elevations have an incredibly weak snowpack. Shady, steep, open slopes sheltered from the wind, such as gladed forested areas, may also avalanche quite easily under the weight of the new snow. These slopes may be far and few between throughout East Central, but you could easily trigger a storm slab if you found the right spot. Monitor the snowpack beneath you frequently as you move through the terrain. Stick to low angle slopes if you dig down and see large, feathery surface hoar or weak, sugary snow. 

    (11/21/2023)

    EXAMPLE: Blowing snow and pillow-like drifts are good ways to identify wind-loaded terrain. 

    Photo: Matt Primomo

Avalanche Discussion

We're kicking off the daily forecast season to welcome in a much-anticipated storm for this upcoming weekend. 

We are starting with a very weak and thin snowpack on the east slopes of the Cascades, and most lower elevations are still bare ground. Snow becomes continuous at around 5000ft in the eastern portion of the zone, such as Icicle Creek. Meanwhile, areas further west, such as Salmon La Sac, hold continuous snow down to around 4000ft. At higher elevations, these areas further west in the zone have about twice as much snow. Over the last week, I found 35cm at 5200ft in Icicle Creek and 50cm of snow at similar elevations in Salmon La Sac. In most locations, the west and south aspects are nearly bare ground up to around 6000ft. Shady slopes hold weak snow covered with large surface hoar crystals that may be prone to avalanches under this new snow load. Sunny slopes have patchy snow cover or icy crusts that make a good sliding surface for avalanches. 

With the highly variable nature of the current snowpack, it can be tricky to identify which slopes are more likely to avalanche. Adjacent slopes may act differently from each other, so here are a few tips to track what's happening beneath you as you travel.

  • Dig down frequently as you travel. This is particularly important as you change aspects and climb in elevation. 
  • Use your probe or pole to track snow depths and identify areas of thin snow cover where hidden obstacles may lurk. 
  • Use quick hand pits to observe how well the new snow bonds to the old surface. If it slides easily, avalanches are more likely. 

You can expect significant snowfall totals throughout the day on Friday, which means avalanche problems could worsen by late afternoon. The new snow will be relatively low density and may not readily form a slab. Therefore, you may see some long-running loose snow avalanches. Small avalanches or just traveling in these low-tide, early-season conditions hold high consequences if you impact rocks or other hazards. So, move slowly and cautiously in the mountains until more snow builds up. 

Regions covered