Avalanche forecast

Central Cascades

Central Oregon Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Avalanches will be likely on Saturday due to the effect of very warm and sunny conditions on the snowpack. As the snow surface becomes wet and slushy, decrease your exposure to avalanche danger by moving to lower angle slopes, out from under big steep slopes, and/or move to slopes that are not as affected by the effect of warming and sun exposure.  

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Overnight temperatures will be well above freezing and Saturday will be another warm and sunny day. As the day heats up, the surface snow will become wet and slushy. Monitor how deep the snow is becoming wet. If you find you are sinking into slushy snow to boot top or deeper (without skis or board), wet loose avalanches have the chance to become large. Wet loose avalanches will be more common on steep slopes, where the slushy snow has the propensity to spill downhill. During the warmest time of the day the lowest elevations in the forecast zone will have a daytime high temperature that will rise into the upper 60's making wet loose avalanches possible even on the shaded northerly aspects. 

    Timing and aspect are important in managing this problem. Wet loose avalanches will be more likely on slopes in the direct sun. If you have certain objectives in steep terrain, recognize the signs of oncoming wet loose avalanches. Wet slushy surface snow, roller balls, or natural avalanches are signs to look for. Even small avalanches can cause you to loose your footing in steep terrain.

     

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2.5

    Warm temperatures can weaken existing cornices. Avoid walking out onto a cornice and minimize the time you spend underneath them. Many overhanging cornices have already broken off, but there are still some out there hanging on.

    Cornices can be found along  ride tops hanging over north and east facing slopes. There are a few sneaky cornices lingering above cliffs and wind exposed ridges below treeline. 

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–3

    With above freezing temperatures overnight for multiple days and very warm temperatures forecasted during Saturday, layer boundaries in the mid and upper pack have the chance to weaken and fail leading to wet slab avalanches. Melting of the snow surface can lead to free water percolating into deeper layers, further weakening bonds in the snowpack. Recognition of this problem includes looking for wet slushy surface snow, pinwheels, and wet loose avalanches. If you observe small wet slabs, this is a good indicator that larger wet slabs are also possible. The size of these avalanches is hard to predict, but they can to be very large. By putting this problem on all aspects/elevations I am not indicating this will be widespread problem with avalanches popping off everywhere but more to keep a mindset that they could happen anywhere. 

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