Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Heavy snowfall and strong winds will increase the avalanche hazard throughout the day. Human triggered avalanches are possible today.   These small avalanches can have  consequences when above exposed or rocky terrain.  Use caution and watch for signs of instability, collapsing, shooting cracks or whumpfing.  

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    According to snowbowl snow report 12  inches of snow fell overnight. The avalanche hazard will continue to increase throughout the day. The forecast is calling for an additional 4 to 8" of snow at 11,500'. If that does not occur and wind continues, this problem will quickly transition to a wind slab problem. Winds out of the SW will have transported additional snow to leeward slopes. Areas of danger will have more than 12" of new snow. 

    Storm Slab avalanches often release at or below the trigger point. 

    Watch for signs of instability including cracking,  whumpfing  and recent avalanches. 

Avalanche Discussion

During the storm it will be critical to assess conditions as they change. This will be the largest snow event to date of our season, with possibly 3 inches of SWE by the end of the week. Our snowpack is weak with a mixture of facets (sugary snow) and ice layers that have persisted in some locations since our Holiday rain events. At some point this week these facets may fail.

As is often the case, conditions across the Peaks are variable and currently very dynamic. Many south facing slopes and above treeline areas have been stripped to rock over the last few weeks. This new snow will hide many of the rocks and obstacles just below the surface.  Ski and ride with care and watch for small avalanches or funky conditions carrying a skier or rider over steep or rocky terrain.  

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