Avalanche forecast

Sawtooth & Western Smoky Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 7 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche danger is LOW today and will rise to MODERATE tonight as snowfall and winds build sensitive slabs over weak old surfaces. Think about where a small sluff could push you, especially in extreme terrain. Be aware of changing conditions and look for cracking or collapsing as signs to seek out lower-angle slopes.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Although this problem probably won't rear its head until tonight, triggering a storm slab avalanche will be possible. Look for obvious signs of instability, including cracking or collapsing as evidence to move to lower-angle terrain. These avalanches are most likely to be found in areas that have received 6+ inches of snowfall and are exposed to wind. Storm slabs may behave unexpectedly - breaking wider or being triggered from the side or below - given the various surfaces they are forming on top of from the last month of dry weather.

Avalanche Discussion

Today's long-awaited snowfall will do little to change the avalanche picture during the day. If you plan to stay out after dark or if you find more new snow than was forecast for, adjust your terrain choices to increasing avalanche danger. We've started to get reports of small natural and human-triggered loose-snow avalanches in steep terrain in the past couple of days. If you choose to enter "extreme" terrain, think about where even a small avalanche could carry you.

Loose Snow: Small dry loose snow avalanches are possible on shady, wind-protected slopes facing NW-N-NE-E. If the upper snowpack contains about a foot of unconsolidated, sugary facets, expect sluffs to entrain additional snow as they move downhill. While these avalanches are generally small, they can be dangerous in consequential terrain, as they may push you into cliffs, trees, or other hazards. Loose dry avalanches typically start small beneath your skis or sled and grow as they descend. Managing this problem is often as simple as slowing down and allowing the sluff to run ahead of you.

The avalanche picture is changing today (finally!!!), so don't let bad habits from the extended period of LOW danger get the best of you. Good travel habits help stack the odds in your favor:

  • Have a plan: Discuss route options, decision points, and what terrain is off-limits before you leave the truck or car.
  • Bring the gear: Carry and know how to use your transceiver, shovel, and probe. 
  • Monitor conditions: Is the wind transporting more snow than expected? Is it hotter and calmer than expected, raising the threat of wet avalanches?
  • Look for obvious signs of instability: Fresh rollerballs, cracking, collapsing, or recent avalanches indicate that avalanches are possible.
  • Only expose one person at a time when skiing or riding steep slopes.

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