Avalanche forecast

Newberry

Central Oregon Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Avalanche activity has been minimal in Newberry Monument, but the presence of persistent weak layers buried in the snowpack means that we can't rule out avalanches completely.  These avalanches could be quite destructive.  The primary culprit is a layer of buried surface hoar that exists on sheltered north facing slopes.  Be wary of these north facing slopes when they are large, steep, and unsupported.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2.5

    Observers and forecasters continue to find persistent weak layers within the snowpack on sheltered north facing slopes.  The greatest concern is a layer of buried surface hoar down 45 cm. that was buried on Feb. 14.  We haven't seen any avalanches on this layer, but snowpack tests often show results that are consistent with the possibility for avalanches.  While avalanches on this layer are unlikely, they would be quite destructive.

    The other weak layer that we have been watching is a layer of faceted snow from Feb. 8 which is deeper in the snowpack (down 65-75 cm).  This weak layer appears to be gaining strength (rounding).  The majority of stability tests are no longer showing failures on this layer.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    There is a bit of debris out there from last Tuesday's rain.  If we get substantial rain on Saturday afternoon, Wet Loose avalanches will be possible on steep slopes.

Avalanche Discussion

Riding conditions were not ideal on Friday; a thick melt-freeze crust seemed to exist everywhere.  At least it was supportable which made travel easy.  By midday, sunny slopes were melting, and the surface snow was softening.  As Ryan mentioned in his observation, the coverage up in the monument is better than it has been for most of this winter.

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