Avalanche forecast

Selkirk Mountains

Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

A new slab building on weak layers will become more reactive to the weight of a skier or rider as snow totals increase during the day. Expect the likelihood of triggering an avalanche to increase on slopes with a slab of snow 6 inches or greater at middle and upper elevations, particularly on the leeward side of ridges where wind has thickened and stiffened slabs. Avalanches can fail deeper in the snowpack, so default to conservative terrain choices today and give yourself a wide margin around open slopes that are 30 degrees or more.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Slabs 1 to 2 feet thick rest on buried weak layers of surface hoar, faceted snow, and hard crusts. Incremental snowfall since January 28 has gradually overloaded these weaknesses, creating a concerning snowpack structure. The character and distribution of the buried weak layers vary somewhat between the Silver Valley-Bitterroots and the northern ranges, including the Selkirks and West Cabinets. These differences reflect variations in rain–snow elevation, storm totals, aspect, and periods of warm, sunny weather.

    As additional snow accumulates this week, the added weight will push these weak layers closer to their tipping point. Because loading has occurred slowly and incrementally, pinpointing when storm slab danger will rise to a more serious level is challenging. A practical benchmark is storm totals: if you encounter more than about 6 inches of new snow, it’s time to reassess your plan and give avalanche terrain a wide margin.The potential to trigger a large, dangerous avalanche on these persistent weak layers should guide decision-making. Persistent slabs are notoriously difficult to evaluate and predict, especially during periods of changing conditions, and warrant a conservative approach.

    Surface hoar on top of a crust with weak facets below the crust, all sitting below a consolidating slab. This is a bad recipe for recreating in steeper terrain. New snow today will fall on a weak surface.

    West Cabinet Mountains. February 5, 2026.

    Photo: Chris Bilbrey

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    New snow will add to growing slab depths, and the sensitivity of these slabs will likely increase during the day as snow totals stack up. Initial storm slabs will be shallow, but a small avalanche has the potential to step down to buried weak layers deeper in the snowpack and produce a much larger and dangerous avalanche. Recent snow has fallen on a weak surface, and avalanches could be triggered from a distance. Give the new snow some time to settle by avoiding travelling on or below steep open slopes. Moderate to strong winds today will build thicker slabs below ridgelines and along the sides of steep terrain features.

    Shooting cracks in the surface snow is one red flag of snowpack instability. Slabs will be more reactive in places with about 6 inches or more of recent snow.

    January 8, 2026. 

    Photo: Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center

Avalanche Discussion

The shift in weather arrived last night, delivering a fresh layer of snow across the mountains. Snowfall will continue today, and this new snow has likely fallen on weak surfaces. With modest amounts of snow each day, predicting the right window for peak sensitivity is a challenge. The start of today will likely feel closer to a moderate rating, but if snowfall over the course of the day hits the higher end of the forecasted totals, or slabs amount to about 6 inches in size, then conditions in the afternoon will be closer to considerable.

Prior to yesterday’s snowfall, a new crop of surface hoar had been developing at the surface. This was observed to be widespread in the Silver Valley-Bitterroots, and since the region experienced the same weather, it was likely buried intact in places across the other zones. Although overall storm slab depths are pretty shallow this early in the storm cycle, buried surface hoar is notorious for being fragile and sensitive. Add to that the forecasted moderate to strong winds, and slabs will grow even larger and become more reactive on slopes susceptible to wind loading.

Deeper down, the previously buried surface hoar and facets from late January still plague the snowpack. A new load of snow will add more stress to these weak layers, which are about 1 to 2 feet down. A small avalanche triggered in the shallow new snow has the potential to step down and trigger a larger and dangerous sized avalanche. Since these weak layers are found the most continuously on the north side of the compass at mid and upper elevations, and winds from the southwest today will be loading much of those same aspects, we can expect this step-down effect to be most likely in these places.

With some uncertainty around how the snowpack is going to handle this new load, the timing, and the understanding that the snowpack structure is poor, it’s a good idea to adopt a conservative mindset while things settle out. Low-angle terrain that doesn’t pose an overhead hazard from a steep slope above will be the best way to enjoy the new snow and reduce your risk of being caught in an avalanche.

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