Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 7 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The most likely place you'd trigger an avalanche on Thursday is a very steep and very sunny slope, but with so much moisture already present in the snowpack, we can't totally rule out any slope at middle and upper elevations quite yet. Fresh rollerballs falling down from rocks and cliffs are your first indication that stability is deteriorating. Lower elevations will remain in the clouds and generally lack consistent snow coverage for hazard to be elevated. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Increasing sunshine and temperatures can turn this problem on as the day progresses. If you are sinking down into wet, mushy snow, consider steering around very steep terrain where avalanches could grow bigger or carry you into hazards such as rocks, trees, or creeks. Although sunshine will largely drive the location of this problem, keep it on your radar if you're still moving through wet snow on more shaded aspects. You can find a small but very steep terrain feature to push on and see how easily snow wants to slide on a crust below. Hazard is lower on slopes that lack sufficient snow coverage, have very rough surfaces, or have refrozen surface crusts.

    (2/4/2026)

    Fresh rollerballs initiating from a cliffband like this are a sign to start backing off very steep terrain in the sun.

    (Roller balls and wet avalanches (D1) from 2/3. Tower Mtn, 6,900ft, SE)

    Photo: NCH

Avalanche Discussion

Cloud coverage, both low and high, stuck around more than forecasted on Wednesday, but it didn't keep temperatures from hitting the 40s and even low 50s (F) at all elevations. Thursday will be even warmer and sunnier (above low clouds). However, there will hopefully be two factors working in our favor. One is that high clouds on Wednesday night will start to clear out, allowing for more radiational cooling and subsequent crust formation. The second is that wind from the east will bring in a bit of cooling on Thursday. Neither of these weather inputs will be enough to totally fend off warming and weakening on sunny slopes, but we have to take the wins where we can get 'em these days. Keep in mind that conditions might be starkly different between the trailhead you start at and the slope you're aiming to ski or ride on due to increased temperature inversions. 

There is some uncertainty about the lingering moisture in the snowpack and how unstable it remains after so many days, especially with how warm it will be on Thursday. An NWAC Forecaster traveling in the Teanaway last Saturday found moist snow at middle elevations that readily slid on a weak crust beneath.  A public observer traveling in the same area on Monday also reported triggering small wet loose avalanches. Then, on Wednesday, an observer traveling in the Steven's Pass zone close to the border of East Central reported more stubborn and isolated wet loose avalanches. Will everything finally just be glued together tomorrow despite all the warmth in East Central? If you're feeling unsure as you travel around on Thursday, you can always dial back your terrain choices.

There's dry ground across many low-elevation or south-facing slopes. The Wenatchees lack consistent snow coverage for on-snow recreation altogether. Plan ahead for challenging travel and be prepared to safely navigate stream crossings, exposed rocks, and other obstacles not typically encountered mid-winter.

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