Avalanche forecast

Continental

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The avalanche hazard is Moderate at all elevations.  It will be possible for a person or machine to trigger an avalanche 1-3 feet deep.  Natural avalanches are unlikely today.

Avalanche forecasts are issued Wednesday-Sunday at 8 am. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Persistent Slab: Multiple weak layers of concern still exist within the snowpack. At this point, the snowpack has had time to adjust to recent moderate stress from solar input and 2–6 inches of snow on April 11–12. With no major stress expected in the next 24 hours, we expect sensitivity to have decreased somewhat in the short term. Cloud cover should help limit warming today, and only a trace of precipitation is expected.

    Even with this temporary decrease in sensitivity, users should keep in mind that persistent weak layers may become more reactive once additional snowfall arrives later in the week and/or the sun returns. Trigger points likely still exist in isolated areas. These are difficult to identify, but are often found in thinner parts of the snowpack near rocks, scoured terrain, or other shallow areas.

    Users can reduce risk by only exposing one person to avalanche prone slopes at a time, grouping up clear of runout zones, avoiding terrain traps, and avoiding steep rocky terrain.

    Deep Persistent Slab: Weak snow buried over a meter deep becomes more widespread as you move north through our forecast zones, with the Continental zone remaining the most concerning. Although it is still unlikely to trigger this layer, slopes that have been scoured by strong northeast winds now have a shallower snowpack, bringing this weak layer closer to the surface and making it easier to affect in isolated areas.

    This remains a low-likelihood, high-consequence problem that may become more concerning as warming temperatures penetrate deeper into our weak snowpack in the coming days. Probing for a shallower snowpack and strong snow over weaker layers below can help identify areas where this problem may be more likely.

    (4/9/2026)

    D2 avalanche triggered remotely while skinning.  Failed on old persistent weak layer after party had already skinned through the area.  

    Wortmans, The Island, ~2800', North

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Wet loose avalanche activity is expected to be confined to low elevation slopes as cloud cover is forecasted to limit the effect the sun has on the snow surface.  For those planning on travelling through steep low elevation terrain, pay attention to how thick the overnight refreeze has been and monitor how snow surfaces are warming up and breaking down the crust at the surface.  Coastal areas may see light rain today below 1000' which would speed up the process of the daytime warmth penetrating the upper snowpack.

    Avoid travelling on or below steep slopes at low elevation once the surface crust has melted, or once there is more than 4-6 inches of wet snow at the surface.

    Looking forward:  Users should anticipate that during times of clear sunny weather, steep and rocky south facing terrain will continue to see wet loose avalanches that have the potential to entrain the full depth of the snowpack due to the poor structure in place.

     

     

    (4/14/2026)

    Wet loose activity entrains the full depth of our weak and thin snowpack.  Toe of the Hoodoo.

    Photo: Gareth Brown

Avalanche Discussion

Avalanche activity in the last 72 hours:  

Minor wet loose activity on solar aspects

Forecast Discussion: 

Today appears to mark the return to a wetter, more active weather pattern. This first round of weather looks mild, and we do not expect a major increase in avalanche hazard today. Looking ahead, however, both persistent weak layers and storm snow problems are expected to become more sensitive as loading increases through the week. Snowfall totals are forecasted to remain modest at first, but could become more meaningful by late Sunday as a stronger system tries to take shape.

We encourage users to stay diligent in their terrain assessment and keep a healthy skepticism toward this unusual Chugach snowpack, especially during periods of increasing stress from new snowfall or warming.

Please consider leaving an observation with storm totals and/or any signs of instability or avalanche activity that you encounter to help us paint a clearer picture of this complex and unusual snowpack. 

For more information regarding our snowpack, see our Season summary, Observations, and avalanche activity sections.  

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