Avalanche forecast

Soldier & Wood River Valley Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions exist. Avalanches may release naturally, on their own. You are most likely to trigger 1-4 foot thick avalanches where the wind formed drifts or stiffened the snow at or near the surface. Large avalanches are also possible in terrain sheltered from the wind. Avalanches may be triggered remotely—from gentler terrain above, below, and to the sides of steep slopes.

 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    What is it? You could trigger 1-4 foot thick avalanches on buried weak layers (sugary facets or crust + facet combinations). The steady stream of snowfall and windblown snow has many slopes teetering on the edge and waiting for a trigger. Wind-loaded slopes have a thicker, more cohesive slab and are the most dangerous. 

    Where is it? Conditions are most dangerous where wind slabs and drifts formed above the faceted snow or crusts + facets mentioned above. However, the snowfall from the past couple of weeks has become cohesive enough to act as a slab on many sheltered slopes. The distribution, character, and sensitivity of the weak layers vary from slope to slope—your best bet is to assume this problem exists until proven otherwise.

    How can you recognize it? Wind-loaded slopes have stiffer, denser snow that keeps your skis or sled from sinking deep into the snowpack. Wind-stiffened snow could be hidden beneath the fresh, fluffy powder. Snowpack collapsing and cracks shooting out in front of you are obvious signs of instability.

    How can you manage it? You can reduce your risk by avoiding slopes steeper than 30 degrees—especially large avalanche paths and those with ugly consequences if you are caught in a slide. Persistent weak layers can fail unpredictably and break significantly wider, deeper, and higher on slopes than you might expect, producing much larger avalanches. You could remotely trigger avalanches from gentle terrain above, below, or to the sides of steep slopes. Avalanches could be triggered by the second, third, or fourth rider on a slope.

    ADDITIONAL DISCUSSION: You could trigger smaller wind slab avalanches or loose snow slides (sluffs) in steep terrain. Some of these avalanches will release naturally today. While most of these "new snow" slides should not be large enough to bury you, they could trigger the larger, more powerful persistent slabs discussed above as they move downslope. Sadly, you cannot assume steep slopes are safe after triggering small slides involving only the recent snowfall. 

    (3/5/23) These persistent slab avalanches failed naturally on E aspects between 7400-8200' in Bullion Gulch in Croy Canyon. 

Avalanche Discussion

Don't let the latest dose of fluffy powder blind you to the dangerous avalanche conditions. Ethan gives a great summary of what to expect in this video. Some key points: 

  • Skiers and riders triggered many large avalanches in recent days. Some were over 1000' wide. 
  • Several of the slides were triggered remotely, from gentler terrain above, below, or to the sides of steeper slopes.
  • Some of the avalanche crowns formed higher on slopes than usual, where the slope looks too flat to avalanche.
  • Yesterday, observers continued to experience violent snowpack collapsing in middle elevation terrain sheltered from the wind, exactly where we love to ride and ski.  

Two trends in recent avalanche activity are apparent:

  1. Conditions become more dangerous as you move south of Banner Summit and the Stanley area (see "Avalanches by Zone" graphic below). 
  2. Triggering avalanches has been most likely on NW-N-NE-E-SE aspects (see "Avalanches by Aspect and Elevation" graphic below). While we have not seen large avalanches release on W-SW-S aspects in the past week, the snowpack structure is concerning on many of those slopes.  

Enjoy the amazing skiing and riding conditions, and maintain a healthy safety margin while you're out playing. Fortunately, the light powder allows us to get face shots and have a blast if we want to avoid avalanche terrain altogether. 

Regions covered