Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Avalanche danger will be on the rise today as snow and wind return to the forecast area. Up to a foot of new snow will fall through the day at upper elevations. Wind will remain moderate to strong, with extreme gusts above treeline. At lower elevations, human triggered avalanches are possible. Near and above treeline, human triggered avalanches are likely and natural avalanches are possible. With today's developing instabilities, conservative decision-making and contingency plans will be necessary. 

 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–2

    As of 5am this morning, light precipitation has just arrived to Mount Shasta. However, we are expected to receive up to 0.84 inches of water by 5pm today. Storm slab instabilities will be on the rise as the new snow falls at rates up to an inch per hour. Keep in mind, storm slab is most sensitive during and right after a storm. By the end of the day, storm slab could be quite touchy. This snow is likely falling onto a firm surface crust existing on the majority of aspects and elevations. Expect to find this problem anywhere new snow has fallen.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    With moderate to strong southerly winds across the forecast area, wind slab will surely develop on northwest, north and east aspects as new snow begins to accumulate.  Cross loading is possible on west and southeast aspects. With extreme winds expected above treeline, accelerated wind loading is possible mid-slope and lower on terrain features. These wind slabs will likely be reactive to skis. By the end of the day, these slabs could break up to a foot deep.

Avalanche Discussion

It is often challenging to decipher how intense a system like this is going to be in terms of snowfall and wind. On one hand, this storm could give us the low end of 6 inches through the day, and instability may appear lower than expected. On the other hand, we could receive over a foot of new snow at treeline with a fast developing wind slab problem. With the currently tracking direct southerly flow and upper level wind, expect this storm to turn quite strong today. Approach avalanche terrain with caution. With snow levels around 5,000 feet, avalanche hazard will be primarily focused on areas receiving fast accumulation of new snow and moderate wind effect. If you choose to travel near or above treeline, plan for strong winds, cold temperatures, and poor visibility. Avoid leeward slopes greater than 30 degrees. 

Road/Recreation Status:

  • Everitt Memorial Highway is CLOSED
  • Castle Lake road is CLOSED
  • Pilgrim Creek Snowmobile Park - OPEN
  • Deer Mountain Snowmobile Park - OPEN
  • MS Ski Park/Nordic Center - OPEN

Regions covered