Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Instability is on the rise as multiple avalanche problems develop below, near, and above treeline. Over 1.5 inches of water is expected in the next 24 hours. This could look like 12 to 20 inches of snow on the mountain, or intense rain on snow below treeline. In addition, moderate to strong winds continue to grab all available snow and transport it onto north and east aspects. Natural avalanches are possible and human triggered avalanches are likely. If you choose to venture into the backcountry today, conservative decision-making will be essential. Limit your time spent in terrain steeper than 30 degrees. 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    As of 5 am this morning, there are 7 inches of new snow near treeline. Today, the Mount Shasta region could receive 5 to 10 inches, with another 6 to 12 inches overnight. Instability associated with storm slab will be on the rise today as more weight is added and snowfall intensity increases. Remember, storm slab is most sensitive during and right after peak storm intensities. These slabs will likely be reactive to skis. If triggered, these slabs could break up to a foot deep. 

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    In the last 24 hours, the snow level fluctuated between 5,000 and 6,000 feet. This snow level is expected to continue through today. This means that below 6,000 feet, it has been essentially rain on snow, adding an immense amount of weight to the upper part of the snowpack. With low-density snow below the super saturated surface, we have an upside down snowpack in areas below treeline. This problem can be found anywhere below the current snow level. 

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Moderate to strong southwest winds continue to transport available snow onto north and east aspects. Cross loading is possible on northwest through southeast aspects. This problem is confined to leeward aspects and areas that could see cross loading. With extreme winds at higher elevations, loading could occur mid-slope, or on unusual terrain features. 

Avalanche Discussion

There are multiple variables to consider today. First, we have a fluctuating snow level (~6,000 feet) putting rain on snow in avalanche terrain below treeline. Second, we have ripping wind near and above treeline that is certainly developing wind slabs on leeward aspects. Third, we have new snow expected (11-22 in the next 24 hours) near and above treeline, on top of 7 inches from yesterday. Lastly, conditions will likely be cold, and wet with poor visibility on the mountain. These factors add some complexity to decision-making and terrain choice for the day. If choosing to go into the backcountry, prepare for wet conditions and have a flexible mindset. Remember to stop and reassess current weather trends and signs of snowpack instability. If in doubt, let this storm run its course and steer clear of avalanche terrain today.

Road/Recreation Status:

  • Everitt Memorial Highway is CLOSED
  • Castle Lake road is CLOSED
  • Pilgrim Creek Snowmobile Park - OPEN
  • Deer Mountain Snowmobile Park - OPEN
  • MS Ski Park/Nordic Center - OPEN

Regions covered