Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 5 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Today, the avalanche hazard is low. Nevertheless, the highest risk will exist on steep, sun-exposed slopes, particularly near cliffs and rocky features. If you encounter slushy, sticky, and wet snow, be aware of the potential for small wet loose avalanches.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    If you are sinking above your ankles into a wet snowpack, move to a cooler, less-sunny slope.  Light northerly winds are forecast today switching west by the afternoon.  

    This hazard will be rare on southerly slopes below treeline, as snow cover there is mostly gone.  More polar (northwesterly, northerly, northeasterly) slopes near/above treeline are cold and will probably remain too cool to produce wet instabilities. 

    (5/4/2024)

    Small wet loose avalanche on an east aspect in the Humphreys Cirque from the 2023-2024 season.

Avalanche Discussion

Today, upper-mountain temperatures are forecast to be 54 degrees F. Last night's low temperature was 35 degrees F at upper elevation, with an inversion, as reported by the Snowslide Canyon SNOTEL which measured 26 degrees F. The Upper mountain has remained warm, with the last time it was below freezing was on March 11th. If you are looking to harvest springtime corn snow, an early start is always best. It's better to show up early and wait for the melt/freeze surface to soften, rather than show up late to a wet, saturated, and destabilizing snowpack. 

Most access and egress locations have lost snow connectivity due to snow melt over the last week.  Expect additional transitions and challenges when moving from zone to zone across the mountain. With a frozen melt/freeze surface in the mornings, and patches of exposed holiday ice layers, today's a great day for ski or splitboard crampons, traction devices, and at the very least an ice axe or whippet pole attachment. Knowing how to use this equipment and staying conservative could prevent a slip-and-slide situation and save you a few hundred feet of unexpected elevation loss, not to mention a serious injury.

A small group of dedicated individuals who have not given up on winter continues to find a few "hard to get to", but pleasurable turns.  Check out some observations here. If you find yourself out in the backcountry, consider submitting a post-trip observation.  Your contributions are greatly appreciated!! 

Northern Arizona locations just experienced the warmest Dec-Jan-Feb (meteorological winter) period on record.  See the info table. In general, warm and dry spring conditions look to dominate the foreseeable future. On March 13, the Snowside Canyon SNOTEL snow depth is 32" and the SWE value is 12.6".  

Regions covered