Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

If the slush gets deep, don't compete with the heat; It’s the mountain’s clear signal to make a retreat.

It has been a week since the Peaks experienced a significant freeze; expect solar aspects to have an increasing danger of wet loose avalanches throughout the day.  Watch for signs of instability, including recent avalanches, collapsing, rollerballs, and deep wet snow. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Temperatures over the last week have been well above normal. Last night, temperatures at the Inner Basin SNOTEL site failed to drop below freezing (bottoming out at 39.7°F), and the upper mountain has not experienced a significant freeze since last Sunday (2/22/26). This trend has been compounded by the last two days being extremely warm, with highs reaching the 50s. While nightly, wind-driven convection cooling may refreeze the snow surface, this is not equivalent to a proper refreeze of the entire snowpack. The more nights the snowpack remains unfrozen, the more internal heat it retains, significantly increasing the likelihood of wet loose avalanches.

    Small to large (D2) wet loose avalanches will be possible, especially in the mid-afternoon as radiant heating peaks. These wet, loose avalanches occur on the snow surface and usually start as point releases that entrain more snow as they descend the slope.  Today's wet loose avalanches could still knock a skier or rider off their feet. Expect lower-elevation southern and eastern slopes to have the highest likelihood early in the day, with more aspects and higher-elevation slopes becoming more suspect as the day progresses. In addition, pay attention to local terrain features that can increase warming rates (e.g., rocky outcroppings) and affect avalanche danger or the implications of a small avalanche (e.g., terrain traps and cliffs). 

    (3/1/2026)

    Temperatures across the last 7 days from ASB weather stations.

    Photo: Tanner Porter

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    The season's weather has created a complex snowpack that contains several persistent weak-layer problems (1) near-surface facets above and below the Holiday Ice Layer and (2) basal facets, each with its own distribution. Although avalanches on this layer are unlikely due to the localized distribution and sensitivity, if overloaded, this persistent weak layer could facilitate large avalanches. A profile on a northwest aspect yesterday showed propagation (ECTP17, ECTP26) on a layer of facets below the ice crust. Although we are over a week from the last snowfall, backcountry travellers should remain aware of these instabilities.

    The layer of greatest concern is facets above the Holiday Ice Layer. These crystals formed during the January 9th storm, which created facets through diurnal recrystallization (recycled powder), and were then buried by the most recent storm cycle. This layer is distributed widely enough that, on specific slopes, if loaded or triggered, it could result in a large avalanche. This is a classic low-probability, high-consequence scenario. This scenario can be managed through thorough slope assessment, conservative decision-making, or avoiding steep and complex slopes.

    (2/28/2026)

    Larry's Line snowpit. NW aspect at 11,550'. 

    Photo: Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center

Avalanche Discussion

Last night, the low at the Inner Basin SNOTEL site (9720') was ~40°F, and all other weather stations remain above freezing. These continued warm temperatures are melting out areas quickly. Travel to and from the Inner Basin is becoming increasingly challenging. 

It's best to dust off your spring travel advice and start early! Bring ski crampons and be off the snow before it turns into deep, wet snow (over boot top). 

In a short timeframe, we’ve transitioned from winter storm conditions to late spring, and it's March 1st. Conditions vary considerably across the forecast area right now, increasing uncertainty. It’s best to factor that into your tour plans by creating options and building in wide safety margins.

A brief season rewind: a significant storm impacted the peaks in late November, followed by a generally dry and warm December. This period produced basal facets, although warmer periods moderated facet development. This dry period was followed by two significant rain events over the Holidays, which have plagued the season with the dreadful Holiday Ice Layer (HIL).  Following the Holidays, we have had several smaller storms that fell on top of the HIL, but the snow was often redistributed, stripping windward upper-elevation aspects and leaving the ice crust exposed. In areas with newer snow, subsequent dry conditions have allowed it to facet, creating near-surface facets. These events have created a complex snowpack that contains two persistent weak-layer problems (e.g., near-surface facets and basal facets), each with its own distribution, and, if overloaded with new snow, could facilitate large avalanches.

There are reports of good soft skiing above treeline. These reports with any information are helpful to us. Please submit them here. 

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