Moab

The avalanche danger is generally LOW. Look for unstable snow on isolated features or in areas of extreme terrain. Dry loose avalanches involving weak surface snow are your primary concern. Though not large enough to bury you, they could carry you into trees, rocks, or over a cliff. You are most likely to encounter this problem on steep, northerly aspects near treeline and below.

Snow and wind on Wednesday could start to change overall conditions but currently, storm totals don't look enough to increase the avalanche danger. Look for the situation to evolve over the coming days.

Check out this recent blog post from Forest Service UAC Director Paige Pagnucco Weak Snow: Today's Surface, Tomorrow's Avalanche Problem.

Drew Hardesty has a new blog titled "The Greatest Rain on Earth."

Geyser Pass Road Conditions: The road is down to the dirt down low while sections of packed snow and ice remain above. AWD with good tires recommended.

Grooming: LUNA groomed all trails last Monday.

We are looking to reschedule our Moab Backcountry 101 Class to February 20, 21 in the hopes that we will have more snow. Click here for information and registration. Moab and Monticello locals can use the discount code MOAB-LOCAL for a 10% discount.

No recent avalanches have been reported.

24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 0" Season Total Snow: 44" Depth at Gold Basin: 27"

Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: S 15-20 Temp: 31°F

Weather

Look forincreasing clouds and breezy southwest winds ahead of a low pressure system digging down the west coast. Although slightly cooler than yesterday, temperatures will remain warm with highs reaching the mid to upper 30's at 10,000 feet. By late tonight, a weak atmospheric river will begin to feed moisture into the Four Corners region bringing our best chance for snow on Wednesday. Warm temperatures will limit amounts and keep snow levels high. 2-4 inches from this first wave seem likely. The pattern stays active through Friday with more chances for snow but model disagreement remains. 6 inches through the end of the period seem likely but some models are calling for more. We'll see a brief lull over the weekend with more activity early next week.

General Conditions

Conditions that weren't great to begin with have really taken a hit from the warm temperatures over the past several days. Any new snow will be an improvement but we really need a significant storm or two (or ten)! Forecasted amounts of snow on Wednesday shouldn't increase the danger much but we'll need to pay attention to incremental loading over the next few days and even into next week. With our weak and variable snowpack, this is the type of danger that can creep up on us.

Currently, the snow surface is variable to non-existent. The high peaks have been blasted by the wind leaving scoured and crusted surfaces while many south facing slopes are melted out. You may still be able to find some good turns in soft "recycled powder" on sheltered shady slopes. In these areas, the snowpack has faceted all the way through to the ground. In addition to providing soft snow for skiing and riding, however, it's also very prone to sluffing and creating dry loose avalanches so be mindful of your terrain choices as you manage this hazard.

Ryan Huels was up in Middle Cirque on Sunday and he sent in this observation with some telling photos of current conditions and overall snow cover.

Everyone's favorite south facing run is going fast. We better get some snow on there before it's gone. Ryan Huels photo.

See all recent observations here.

Snowpack and Weather Data

NEW! Gold Basin webcam storm stake

Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')

Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')

SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')

Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')

NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.

This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.