Avalanche forecast

Central Cascades

Central Oregon Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Warm temperatures and sunshine will melt the surface snow and lead to Wet Loose avalanches.  Wet Loose avalanches are most likely on the sunniest slopes and as the day progresses.  If you are seeing natural avalanches, or sinking into wet slushy snow, it is time to find cooler slopes or avoid steep terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Wet Loose avalanches will be likely on steep slopes below treeline.  I expect most of them to be small, but Wet Loose avalanches can be surprisingly powerful.

    Higher in the mountains, many slopes are covered in ice from last week, and this will limit which slopes can produce Wet Loose avalanches.  On Monday, these icy slopes were softening just enough that I could skin on lower angle sunny slopes.  Most slopes that aren't icy seem to have wind affected snow from Saturday.  Avalanches are most likely where this snow lies on sunny slopes.

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    There are lots of big cornices out there on ridgelines above north and east slopes.  Warm, sunny weather will weaken these cornices, and I expect we will see some collapses by the end of the week.  Steer clear of cornices this week.  Remember that they can break farther back than we expect.

Avalanche Discussion

On Monday the predominant factor up high was still the ice.  While icy slopes were softening enough to skin on, I wasn't too psyched to venture into steep terrain.  Sunnier slopes are heading in the right direction:  ice is melting during the day, and then old powder is going through melt-freeze.  I think riding conditions can only improve as the week progresses.

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