Avalanche forecast

Continental

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 7 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche hazard is Moderate at low elevations and Considerable at mid and upper elevations.  It will be possible for a person to trigger an avalanche 1-2 feet deep within the new storm snow at the mid and upper elevations which could step down to deeper weak layers creating a large dangerous avalanche. Be conservative in the Continental zone.

Public avalanche forecasts are issued Wednesday-Sunday at 8 am. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    In the continental zone temperatures stayed below freezing overnight, but storm totals are expected to be less. The buried surface hoar below 3000 ft will likely remain intact for now and new snow throughout the day may increase the sensitivity of this layer.

    This layer is buried on top of a rain crust which can be easily identified with simple pole probing. If the rain crust exists, so does the buried surface hoar. In the continental zone it is buried  around 8” deep.  Stay heads up below 3000ft and avoid steep slopes and terrain traps.

    Storm Slab: Expect new snow to accumulate above 3000'. Pay attention to how much new snow is building and how reactive it feels. Watch for signs of drifting (pillows, textured snow, cracking). Quick assessment tools like hand pits and small test slopes work well for determining how sensitive storm slabs are in the terrain you’re traveling through. The peak precipitation intensity is forecasted for the middle of the day today, so expect sensitivity to increase throughout the day.

    1/26 BSH found under 1 foot of new snow. Girls/ S/ 2300'/2mm grid

    Photo: Gareth Brown

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Weak snow near the ground exists at all elevations and is now deeply buried in most locations. In many areas, basal facets are bridged by stronger, stiffer layers in the middle of the snowpack. As this problem gets deeper it becomes harder to trigger and is unlikely to produce obvious red flags like cracking or collapsing. Expect a stubborn, unreactive deep slab in most places—this is a low-likelihood / high-consequence setup.

    The most likely trigger points are thin spots, especially steep, rocky terrain where the weak layers are closer to the surface. A rider may be able to stress the basal weak snow in these shallow areas, and a small trigger could step down or propagate into deeper, thicker parts of the snowpack, producing a large and destructive avalanche. The best way to manage this problem is to avoid steep, rocky features and other shallow-snow areas where the snowpack is thin and variable.

    In the Continental zone, the hazard will remain CONSIDERABLE where the snowpack is thinner, weaker, and more easily affected by human triggers. Human-triggered deep slab avalanches are possible in the Continental zone. They are unlikely in other zones, but if triggered could produce very large avalanches with a very low chance of survival.

    (1/23/2026)

    Large connected natural hard slab avalanche associated with our deep persistent weak layer. Mt Dimond north face

    Photo: Gareth Brown

Avalanche Discussion

Avalanche activity in the last 72 hours:  None

Forecast Discussion

The avalanche problems and hazard levels continue to be complicated and vary depending on the elevation and the zone in which you are traveling in today. 

The hazard might be the same for low and middle elevations for Maritime and Continental, but for different reasons. So don’t gloss over the details and make sure to check the forecast for the zone in which you plan to travel in.

The main commonality between all zones is that weak snow exists at the bottom of the snowpack. When change is occurring in this weak snowpack (like rain or heavy snow) being conservative is advised as the weak snowpack might react differently than a usual Thompson Pass snowpack.

For more information regarding our snowpack, see our Season summary, Observations, and avalanche activity sections.   

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