Avalanche forecast

Continental

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The avalanche hazard remains Moderate at all elevations. Warm temperatures and rain at lower elevations will continue to promote wet loose activity today.  Avoid steep slopes where the snow is wet, especially if there are hazards below. Small wet loose avalanches can easily carry a traveller downhill. Users who travel outside our forecast area may encounter a persistent slab problem. (see discussion below). 

Avalanche Forecasts are issued Wednesday-Sunday at 8 am.  

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Wet loose activity will be most likely in lower elevations where rain is begining to permiate a weaker snowack structure. 

    Over the last week, sunny days and warm temperatures have been driving an increase in wet loose activity. Other solar-driven activity has included cornice fall, ice fall, and at least one wet slab avalanche.  Although it is unlikely we will see the sun today, warm temperatures and rain at lower elevations will continue to weaken the snowpack at lower elevations on all aspects. Expect rain levels to increase to 3000 feet by this afternoon. Over the last 48 hours, temperatures have spiked up to 50 degrees in many areas, including some high-elevation solar aspects. Limited refreezing overnight combined with the addition of rain will continue to contribute to wet loose activity today. As the snowpack becomes saturated and weaker, there may be an increasing chance of wet slab avalanches in the near future. 

    Within the last 48 hours, active wet loose avalanches on steep solar aspects of Snow Slide Gulch and South Three Pigs as well as Town Mountain.  This was due to temperatures that spiked above freezing yesterday and reached into upper elevations.  

     

    Avoid exposure to steep terrain with wet snow; this includes the terrain above you, not just the slope you are traveling on. Small amounts of heavy wet snow can easily push a traveller over or into hazardous terrain. 

    Large wet loose natural activity on Snowslide Gulch 4/2

    Photo: Gareth Brown

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    For over 2 weeks, we have been tracking a layer of buried surface hoar covered by 2 feet of snow near the coast, decreasing to only 4 inches at the far northern end of our forecast area. Numerous observations within our forecast area have shown no significant reactivity or avalanche activity with this layer over the last 2 weeks. Formal snow pits and hasty pits continue to show a layer at the 3/16 new/old interface consisting of highly deformed facets(healing) that are bonding well to layers above and below.  Where this setup exists, triggering an avalanche at this layer is currently unlikely. 

    It is important to note that conditions outside our forecast area may differ significantly (see forecast area map). If you travel outside of this area, be sure to evaluate the snowpack and seek out local information if possible.  Observations continue to come in from helicopter operations that are finding buried surface hoar much more intact and reactive in stability tests as recently as 3/29, East of Marshall Pass.  Even though this terrain is well outside our forecast area, we want users to be aware of the potentially dangerous setup if they are planning to travel to more remote zones. 

    Buried surface hoar can persist and remain active for an extended period. Any area where well-preserved crystals are found below the overlying slab may be capable of producing avalanches for quite some time. Remain diligent and assess the snowpack on a slope-by-slope basis in remote or unfamiliar terrain.  The natural settlement of the overlying slab, temperature increase, and wind can all increase cohesion, which can increase the sensitivity of this weak layer where it is present.  Additional snowfall later this weak has the potential to increase the sensitivity of this layer where it exists.

     

     

     

    (3/19/2025)

     Natural avalanche in the books that likely failed on 3/16 BSH

    Photo: Eagan Gleasson

Avalanche Discussion

Observed Avalanche Activity last 72 hours: 

4/2- Natural wet loose D2-3 avalanches off Snowslide Gulch and South Three Pigs.

4/2- Numerous D1-2 wet loose avalanches

4/1-Human triggered D1.5 avalanche on a W/NW aspect of the nose of Iguana Backs. SS-ASu-R1-D1.5

4/1-Multiple D1-1.5 skier triggered wind slab avalanches reported by heli operations.

3/29-Human triggered D2 avalanche on a south-facing aspect at mid-elevations of Loveland Basin. SS-ASu-R2-D2

Forecast Discussion:

With Thompson Pass being extremely busy this time of year, great weather, and excellent travel conditions, users will be accessing terrain that is outside of the core forecast area.  It is strongly advised for users to remain diligent and be suspect of the snowpack when traveling into new zones and valleys.  Cornice fall is a major concern this time of year and can produce full-depth avalanches in extreme terrain.  Avoiding cornices is highly recommended.

After 2 weeks of sunshine, we are in a transition to wetter stormy conditions. Today's weather is not expected to be highly impactful, but things are expected to ramp up over this weekend. Rain will fall between 1000 and 3000 feet for several days, continuing the breakdown of our lower elevation snowpack. There is some uncertainty regarding snowfall amounts up high at the moment, but there is a good chance we will see notable accumulations into early next week. Stay tuned for updates on snowfall totals and associated avalanche hazards.

Recently formed windslabs are expected to be unreactive today. A short-lived North wind event on 3/31 created pockets of windslab. These have been found to be 10-20 cm thick in most areas, although at least slab up to 2 feet thick was reported. These exist in specific areas and are more concentrated in the typical windy places, such as upper elevations along the road corridor and terrain in close proximity to the Thompson Pass gap.  

We continue to look for the 3/16 buried surface hoar layer, and results repeatedly show this interface to be unreactive and broken down in our forecast area.  When traveling to remote zones, users are encouraged to look at the interface of the most recent snowfall to see if preserved buried surface hoar exists.  We will continue to monitor this layer as it is stressed by new snow loads over the next several days. 

Additional Information:

Watch out for cornices. A couple of cornice falls have been observed in the Continental region.

A weather and snowpack season history is available by clicking on the Season Summary tab which is located below the bottom line statement once you have entered the full forecast.

Season Snowfall Data

Location 24 hour Snowfall Inches- 4/1 24 hour Snow Water Equivalent Inches Height of Snow April Snowfall Inches Season Total Snowfall Valdez    0    0    45     0 N/O     Thompson Pass    0    0   N/O     0    ~500 Nicks    0    0    134    0 N/O 46 Mile    0     0   18    0 N/O

Regions covered