Avalanche forecast

West Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 8 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

If skies stay cloudy, there might not be much in the way of avalanche danger. However, if you’re feeling hot and sticky in the sunshine, odds are, so is the snowpack. Head to shadier terrain if you see snow shedding from rocks or find new rollerballs.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    A few things need to line up for wet loose avalanches to be a concern on Tuesday. First, you’ll need extended periods of propper sunshine. Thin clouds could keep the sun from affecting the snow. Next, the sun may need to break down a crust on the surface. That’s a tall order this time of year. 

    Fortunately, this is an easy scenario to monitor. Make note of long periods of sun. Snow falling from the trees or the surface getting wet and sticky are all good clues. However, sometimes the rocky slopes above you are getting hot and sunny while you shiver in the shade. Natural avalanches could release from these slopes, or you may trigger a wet slide on steep sunny terrain. 

    The snow on lower angled and shady terrain may get heavy with the warm temperatures, but likely won’t become wet and unstable.

    (12/29/2025)

    Rollerballs and snow shedding from rocks above Reflection Lake, Mt Rainier. 

    Photo: Andy Harrington

Avalanche Discussion

This avalanche forecast really hinges on the sky, and that’s very hard to predict. Add the size of this zone, and some locations may experience avalanche danger, while other places stay locked up. Areas near Chinook and White Pass could also benefit from cold easterly flow and the potential for low clouds/fog. Meanwhile, temperatures on Mt Saint Helens and Mt Rainier could soar. Not surprisingly, these avalanche conditions feel more like “if-then” statements. 

On Monday, some observations reported a few rollerballs, and moments of real sunshine, but thin clouds returned before wet loose avalanches really got going. Several locations also reported a breakable crust on steep southerly slopes. 

While the focus is on the wet snow, if you’re pushing into higher, rocky, complex terrain, there could be a few isolated wind slabs still lingering in between the rocks. Take a good hard look for signs of wind loading before jumping in. 

Overall, observations suggest the snowpack is strong and well settled. We’re still keeping an eye on a few notable crusts, such as 12/24 and 12/18. The former is often breakable and sits at the base of the most recent snow (about 12 inches below the surface). All the recent snow has definitely improved travel and coverage, but conditions are still thin. Open creeks, random holes, and grabby bushes continue to make travel tricky.

Regions covered