Avalanche forecast

Continental

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The avalanche hazard is moderate at all elevations.  Human triggered avalanches are possible 1-2 feet in depth involving the new snow.  Watch out for freshly wind loaded slopes near ridge tops and cross loaded gullies.  Natural avalanches are unlikely.

 

 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Storm slabs have been gradually building since the 4th of April, adding up to 1-2 feet above 3000'.  This new snow has fallen on temperature crusts in most areas except for high elevation North facing terrain where near surface facets and surface hoar may be present at the interface.  Where the new snow overlies a crust good bonding has been observed.  Where the new snow overlies faceted snow on high sheltered north facing terrain human triggered avalanches remain possible up to the depth of the new snow.  Human triggered avalanches on the nose of Crudbusters on the 9th and Crybabies on Billy Mitchell yesterday fit this pattern.  If travelling in consequential terrain that is high and North a slope by slope assessment is reccommended as near surface facet distribution is likely to be spotty.

    Aside from the interface of the new snow there is also the possibility of weaknessess within the storm slab created by changes in wind or temperature over the last week.  Yesterday saw an increase in south wind with active snow transport along ridgetops.  Watch for freshly loaded pockets of wind slab that will be possible for a person to trigger.

    Pay attention to your aspect, the depth and consistency of the new snow  and search for faceted snow at the interface when traveling at upper elevations.  Try not to ignore signs like shooting cracks and collapsing, these are signs that a slope is unstable.  Wind loaded snow will be the most likely hazard to encounter and faceted snow at the base of the storm slab will create larger avalanches with more potential for consequences.

     

     

    Skier triggered avalanche on the Nose of Crudbusters. 20 inches deep.  SS-ASu-R3-D2-I

    Photo: Oliver

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Most locations received an overnight freeze that will delay the onset of wet loose hazard today. Overcast skies are forecasted today that should limit wet loose activity to steep low elevation terrain.  If the sun pops out of the clouds solar aspects may become active during the heat of the day.  Pay attention to how much moisture exists in the surface snow.  If the snowpack is wet on the surface and can't support a persons weight on foot then wet loose avalanches are likely in terrain steeper than 35°.

    Pinwheels and rollerballs that originate from steep rocky terrain are a great sign that slope is heating up and it is time to move to more shaded aspects.

     

     

     

    (4/2/2025)

    Skier triggered wet loose avalanche near Worthington Glacier toe.

    Photo: Gareth Brown

Avalanche Discussion

Observed Avalanche Activity last 72 hours: 

4/11- Skier triggered D2 avalanche on Billy Mitchell Crybabies.  No report available.

4/9-Multiple D1-2 Skier triggered avalanches were reported in Gully 1, North Oddessey, and Crudbusters

Forecast Discussion:

Over the last week storm slabs continue to slowly accumulate above 2000', while the low elevation snowpack becomes isothermal during the heat of the day.  Overall good bonding has been observed at the 4/4 interface where a crust is present, however, without any real time for settlement expect some slopes to remain sensitive to human triggers, especially high elevation North facing terrain  where facets may exist.  Density changes within the storm snow and fresh windloads from yesterday are also areas where users could experience instability.  Expect clouds, wind and precipitation to increase by this evening with the freezing level expected to climb to 2000' by tomorrow.

Cloudy weather with poor visibility has been limiting observations for the last week, creating uncertainty. We hope to gain more information about storm slab characteristics during brief windows of opportunity over the next couple of days. Public observations are highly appriciated and can help the community come to a better understanding of the snowpack. Please use our observation platform to communicate what you see out there. Reporting observed avalanche activity is especially helpful. Thanks to those who have been contributing! 

The 3/16 layer of Buried surface hoar has been removed from our avalanche problem list.  Continued observation of this layer within our forecast area has shown the weak layer in question to be highly deformed (rounding), laying flat, mixed with other rounded grains, and unreactive in stability tests.  The most recent spike in temperatures has further decreased the likelihood of this layer being reactive in our forecast area as warm temperatures and moisture continue to promote rounding and mixing of the layer with other rounded grains.  This layer should continue to be monitored for those traveling outside of the forecast area, especially in zones to the south and east of Marshall Pass, where this layer continues to be reported as preserved. 

Additional Information:

Watch out for cornices. A couple of cornice falls have been observed in the Continental region, as well as more remote zones outside the forecast area.

A weather and snowpack season history is available by clicking on the Season Summary tab, which is located below the bottom line statement once you have entered the full forecast.

Season Snowfall Data

Location 24 hour Snowfall Inches- 4/12 24 hour Snow Water Equivalent Inches Height of Snow April Snowfall Inches Season Total Snowfall Valdez    0    N/O    35     0 N/O     Thompson Pass    1-2    N/O   N/O     0    ~500 Nicks    0    0    140    0 N/O 46 Mile    0     0   14    0 N/O

Regions covered