Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 9 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

You can trigger an avalanche where previous winds drifted snow, particularly on shadier aspects at upper elevations.  Fresh snow today may obscure the visual clues to the older drifts.  Cracking, collapsing, or stiffer feeling snow may clue you into the hazard. You can find lower-risk options in wind-sheltered areas, at lower elevations, or on slopes that were bare ground before last Sunday's snowfall.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    It may be easy to trigger soft slabs of wind-drifted snow where drifts formed over old snow layers, especially on the north half of the compass.  North to northwest winds cross-drifted on aspects holding the weakest snow while forming small wind drifts on southerly aspects.   Shooting cracks and blowing snow are signs of instability: manage the problem by avoiding leeward terrain features where the recent snow is stiffer and thicker.  Most wind-sheltered terrain lacks a slab; stay alert for isolated exceptions.  

    (12/2/2025)

    A tiny, wind slab released from a ski cut on southeast feature near 12,000 feet.

    Photo: Crested Butte Avalanche Center

Avalanche Discussion

A layer of weak snow is fairly continuous on the north side of the compass from snowfall in October and mid-November.  A storm this Sunday, November 30th, deposited 8 to 16 inches of snow across this weak layer, accompanied by northwesterly winds strong enough to redistribute the snow at upper elevations.   A small natural cycle was documented on Monday, and signs of instability have been noted each day since (Anthracites, Mount Baldy, Baxter Basin).  More snow accumulated in the Northwest Mountains and at upper elevations, so the most likely place to trigger an avalanche is in these areas.  Lower elevations below roughly 10,000 feet and the Southeast Mountains received less snowfall, reducing the threat of avalanches.  In these areas, previous wind loading is often a necessary ingredient to form a small slab.  Most avalanches are expected to remain small in size, but given the shallow snowpack, any ride in an avalanche could be hazardous.  An outlier large-sized avalanche couldn't be ruled out on the most drifted slopes, or if you happened to find an isolated spot identified in the Persistent Slab problem.  One of these slides may be bigger than you expect.

Some uncertainty exists with the impact of today's weather.  Up to 6 inches of snow may accumulate, gently increasing the hazard.  Thankfully, wind speeds appear to be light with little to no drifting expected.  However, Sunday's avalanche cycle was small, with most natural avalanches coming from high elevations or wind-drifted features.  The additional snow could increase the sensitivity or increase the distribution below treeline.  Carefully monitor snowfall rates, and if you encounter 6 inches or more of new snow, then the hazard is increasing.

Upcoming Events: 

  • Holiday Tree Sale: December 3rd-5th from 3 pm-7 pm at Ace Hardware
  • Avalanche Awareness Night: Saturday, December 6th at the Center for the Arts. Doors at 5, show at 6:30.
  • Beacon Brush-Up: Sunday, December 7th, 9 am - 2 pm at the Community School

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