Avalanche forecast

Summit Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 9 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

There is a good chance of triggering a large avalanche 1 to 2’ deep on several buried layers of weak snow. Approach avalanche terrain cautiously and be aware that this type of problem can be tough to assess. Glide avalanches continue to release so avoid traveling under them whenever possible.

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Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Yesterday's storm brought rain up to around 2500', along with strong winds and a few inches of snow in the alpine. This is going to make it tricky to predict how the weak layers of buried surface hoar will respond. Here's what we know:

    • These weak layers are responsible for 2 remote triggered avalanches a week ago on Tenderfoot and we are still getting concerning results in snow tests. 
    • Rain reached much higher yesterday than it did during the previous storm.
    • That has added extra weight to the snowpack, and the weak layers have not had much time to change at all.

    What we don't know is exactly how touchy those weak layers will remain. It is likely that all of that rain helped the cause stability-wise at mid and lower elevations because the snow above the weak layers is likely now either a thick crust or a wet and incohesive slab of mushy snow. But at some point there will be a transition from that wet mush to new snow that will likely still be reactive and capable of making big avalanches.

    Approach steep terrain very cautiously today. Be aware that these layers of surface hoar tend to exist in pockets, so even if you dig a pit and get a stable result you may still trigger an avalanche in a nearby slope. When these layers are the main concern, it's usually best to avoid big steep terrain, especially if there is any kind of terrain trap below.

    (11/22/2025)

    Buried surface hoar on the bed surface of an avalanche that was triggered last weekend.

    Photo: Peter Wadsworth

  • Glide Cracks

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    The glide avalanche cycle is still a major concern. These avalanches have been releasing in high-use areas and their timing is impossible to predict. The only way to manage them is to avoid traveling under open glide cracks. We have seen a few of these release without any prior crack on the slope, so it is a good idea in general to avoid spending time under any steep terrain. Another good reason to travel one at a time, give your partners plenty of space, and keep eyes on your partners from safe places outside of runout zones.

    (11/29/2025)

    Glide avalanche on Butch Mtn in Summit Lake.

    Photo: Daniel Krueger

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