Avalanche forecast

Summit Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 9 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

A calm day of weather is expected today, but the snowpack is still dangerous. The biggest concern is that a person could trigger a large avalanche up to 2' deep on a layer of weak snow buried in the snowpack above 1.000'. We can completely avoid this by choosing lower angle slopes. New glide avalanches have been observed daily this week and their timing is unpredictable so stay out from underneath visible cracks or "brown frowns."

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Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    It has been 10 days since there were two remotely-triggered avalanches on Tenderfoot. No avalanche activity on a weak layer is typically a good sign, but with this set-up of three layers of buried surface hoar within the snowpack we don't trust it yet.

    These layers exist through treeline and up to the ridgetops on all aspects, although it is less likely to trigger them where a crust exists. This problem is so tricky because natural avalanches are unlikely, but the chance of a person triggering one of these large avalanches is uncertain and the consequences could be devastating, especially if there are rocks, trees, or gullies below the slope.

    Buried surface hoar is notorious for giving either no information or bad information. When the situation is so hard to assess we always come back to travel advice to guide us in our danger rating choice and right now sticking to low angle slopes is the best option for a safe day.

     

    (12/1/2025)

    Three layers of buried surface hoar at 3080' on a southwest slope on Tenderfoot Ridge.

    Photo: Andrew Schauer

  • Glide Cracks

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Another scary glide avalanche story came in yesterday. A group was touring on Sunburst and did not observe any crack on the west side of Magnum at 10:45am. On their way back to the parking lot they saw the avalanche at 1:15pm. This same story occurred on Seattle Ridge on Repeat Offender on November 24th where there was no crack visible or barely visible before the release of a very large and dangerous avalanche. These situations occurred in Turnagain Pass, but the same problem is happening in Summit Lake. It's hard to avoid glide cracks at this point and no one knows when they will release, so keep a close eye out for even a small crack in the snow that looks funny and avoid traveling underneath them whenever possible. 

    (12/3/2025)

    Recent glide activity on Tri-Tip Mountain.

     

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